Rwanda will record rainfall totals ranging between 300 and 1,000 millimetres in the September-December season, according to the forecast by the Rwanda Meteorology Agency.

The rainfall totals are higher than the long-term average of 279 to 962 millimetres, officials said as they released the September to December 2026 Climate Outlook on Friday, August 21.

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The expected rainfall pattern could be comparable to one recorded in 1997 and 2023, according to Aimable Gahigi, Director General of the Rwanda Meteorology Agency.

In May 2023, unusually heavy rains killed 136 people in the northwestern part of the country and left widespread damage.

Officials said the expected seasonal rainfall is mainly influenced by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (El Niño) and warming over the western Indian Ocean (positive Indian Ocean Dipole), together with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which drifts moisture from the Northern Hemisphere towards the equatorial region where Rwanda is located.

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"There is a high probability of above-normal rainfall across the country during the September–December season compared with the long-term average based on records spanning at least 30 years,” Gahigi said.

"Generally, rainfall in September is expected to be below normal, gradually increasing during the remaining months of the season.”

Rain forecast per district

Rainfall ranging between 800 and 1,000 millimetres is forecast in Nyamasheke District, western parts of Rutsiro and Karongi, western and southern parts of Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru, and eastern parts of Rusizi.

Rainfall ranging between 600 and 800mm is expected in Musanze and Gakenke districts, parts of Nyaruguru District, parts of Burera and Muhanga districts, parts of Nyamagabe District, and Western Province except the western parts of Rusizi District.

Rainfall ranging between 450 and 600 mm is expected in Gicumbi and Rulindo districts and in the City of Kigali except a small portion of its southern parts. It is also expected in Huye, Nyanza, Ruhango and Nyagatare districts, except their eastern parts.

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The same amount is forecast in parts of Gisagara District and Kamonyi District, parts of Rwamagana, parts of Gatsibo District, and some of parts of Burera, Rusizi and Nyaruguru districts.

Rainfall ranging between 300 and 450 mm is expected in the remaining parts of the Southern and Eastern provinces and the City of Kigali.

Start of the September to December 2026 rainfall season

Between September 15 and 22, rainfall is expected to begin in Musanze District, Burera District except its eastern parts, the western parts of Gakenke and Nyamagabe districts, and Western Province except a small portion of Rusizi, Karongi and Ngororero districts.

Between September 22 and 29, rainfall is expected to begin in Muhanga District, parts of Western Province, and parts of Gakenke, Burera and Nyamagabe districts. It is also expected to begin in parts of Nyaruguru, Nyanza, Ruhango and Nyagatare districts, parts of Kamonyi and Gatsibo districts, and in Rulindo and Gicumbi districts.

Between September 29 and October 6, rainfall is expected to begin in parts of Southern Province, Gicumbi and Rulindo districts, the City of Kigali, Eastern Province except Kirehe District and the southern parts of Kayonza District, the eastern parts of Ngoma District, as well as most parts of Gatsibo and Nyagatare districts.

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Between 6 and 13 October 2026, rainfall is expected to begin in Kirehe District and the remaining parts of Ngoma and Kayonza districts.

Advice for preparations ahead of heavy rains

Public institutions, NGOs, the private sector and the general public have been advised to take advantage of the seasonal forecast and make informed decisions regarding strong winds, lightning strikes, especially at the beginning of the season, hailstorms, rainfall runoff and soil erosion.

18,417 elements at risk of disasters

A risk assessment by the Ministry in charge of Emergency Management identified 18,417 elements at risk and gave the country an overall resilience rating of 46 per cent, classified as moderate.

"We can’t stop the rain, but we can reduce its effects,” said Christine Niyotwambaza Hitimana, Director General of Surveillance and Preparedness at the ministry.

Measures include rehabilitating old and weak houses, cleaning water channels, strengthening roofs, ensuring a safe distance between landslide-prone slopes, avoiding dumping waste into drainage systems, increasing soil erosion control interventions, relocating people from high-risk zones, and building disaster-resilient houses.

She urged the public to avoid walking outdoors during heavy rain and to refrain from using electronic devices during thunderstorms.

She called upon farmers to embrace crop and livestock insurance.

"Risky mining sites should be assessed before heavy rain,” she said.

She said there are 14 evacuation sites equipped with water and electricity in case of disaster emergencies.

Nearly 4,000 people have participated in disaster preparedness training and simulation exercises.

Rwanda has also operationalised a 24/7 National Emergency Command Centre to coordinate disaster response. Nine of the country’s 28 district command posts have so far been equipped to oversee disaster preparedness, response and recovery.

Strengthening early warning system

Evergiste Niyonsenga, Assistant Lecturer in Agriculture at Rwanda Polytechnic Musanze College, said there is a need for more localised weather stations in all cells and sectors to support farmers in making informed decisions.

According to Meteo Rwanda, there are 350 weather stations across the country. The average distance between one weather station and another is 10 kilometres.

"We also need a mobile phone application that can provide real-time weather forecasts as part of the early warning and preparedness system,” he said.

Vedaste Iyakaremye, a climate and meteorology expert at Meteo Rwanda, said a mobile application to provide real-time weather and climate information is being developed.

Jean Jules Sibomana, a disability rights activist, said there is a need to improve the early warning system by incorporating sign language for people with disabilities.