The government is stepping up preparations for floods, landslides and other weather-related disasters as forecasters warn that a very strong El Niño could bring above-average rainfall to much of East Africa during the October–December 2026 rainy season. Government officials and regional climate experts say the coming months should be used to strengthen early warning systems, protect vulnerable communities and prepare key sectors for the possible impacts of prolonged heavy rainfall. The warning was issued during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 74), being held in Rwanda, where scientists and policymakers are discussing the regional outlook prepared by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). ALSO READ: Flood disaster: Death toll climbs to 130, over 5,000 houses swept El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Although it originates thousands of kilometres away, it can alter weather patterns across the globe. In Rwanda and parts of East Africa, it is often associated with wetter-than-normal rainy seasons, increasing the risk of floods and landslides. Fidèle Bingwa, the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Environment, said Rwanda's experience with heavy rainfall has shown how quickly extreme weather can develop into a multi-sectoral disaster. For Rwanda, this means preparing for the potential impacts of heavy rainfall, including floods and landslides, and the effects these may have on communities, agriculture and infrastructure, Bingwa said. Heavy rains can damage roads and bridges, destroy crops, raise water levels in rivers and lakes, and disrupt transport and livelihoods, particularly in areas already vulnerable to flooding and landslides. Bingwa said the government's climate resilience strategies focus on improved rainfall monitoring and forecasting, flood early warning systems, catchment management, drought preparedness and stronger disaster response mechanisms. As the region approaches the October–December rainy season, he said national climate outlook forums should move beyond forecasting to preparing for the consequences of the expected weather conditions. We should strengthen preparedness across key sectors, protect vulnerable communities and critical infrastructure, and ensure that warnings reach people early, clearly and in a form they can act upon, he said. He called on humanitarian organisations, development partners, financial institutions, the private sector and regional scientific institutions to invest more in climate services and early warning systems. He also stressed that vulnerable groups, including women, children, older persons, persons with disabilities, smallholder farmers, pastoralists, fishing communities and residents of informal settlements — should be deliberately considered when climate services and disaster preparedness measures are designed. ALSO READ: Over 650 households displaced by River Mukungwa floods to be relocated Aimable Gahigi, the Director General of Meteo Rwanda, said the El Niño outlook has implications for nearly every sector of the economy. Among those likely to be affected are disaster risk management, health, agriculture and food security, livestock, water resources, energy, the blue economy, and communities vulnerable to displacement or climate-related conflict. This is because El Niño causes heavy rainfall in Rwanda, as it does in some other countries in the region, Gahigi said. The Ministry in charge of Emergency Management (MINEMA) has also urged communities and institutions to prepare before the rains intensify. In a public warning, the ministry said forecasts indicate that the autumn season is expected to bring heavy rainfall linked to El Niño and that the current period offers an opportunity to reduce the risks posed by floods, landslides, lightning, strong winds and other weather-related hazards. Regional experts say the forecast points to an unusually strong event. Nicholas Savage, a weather scientist involved in the outlook, said the analysis focuses on October, November and December, when El Niño typically brings wetter conditions to large parts of East Africa. He explained that the climate pattern tends to have different effects at different times of the year, with drier conditions often occurring between June and September before wetter conditions return during the October–December season. There is a 99 per cent chance of El Niño and a 96 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño during October to December, Savage said, adding that models suggest the conditions could persist into 2027. Abdi Fidar, Director of ICPAC, said accurate forecasts alone would not protect communities unless governments and other institutions turned them into practical action. ALSO READ: Regional forecaster predicts heavy March-May rains for Rwanda We must all work closely with governments, local authorities, disaster management institutions, humanitarian and development partners and communities to ensure that forecasts are translated into decisions and action, he said. He added that climate risks cross national borders because countries in the region share rivers, ecosystems, transport corridors, markets and livelihoods. A climate crisis in one country can therefore have significant consequences for its neighbours and the wider region, Fidar said. The regional outlook indicates that most of the Greater Horn of Africa is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the October–December season. Masilin Gudoshava, a climate modelling expert at ICPAC, said September is expected to be relatively dry across much of the region before rainfall increases significantly later in the year. Scientists used seven global climate models and three forecasting approaches — canonical correlation analysis, linear regression and a scale-based method — to develop the seasonal outlook. The forecast divides the region into several rainfall probability zones, with some areas showing as much as a 90 per cent chance of above-normal rainfall. Gudoshava said there is a high probability that many parts of the region will exceed 300 millimetres of rainfall during the season. Areas expected to have a significant likelihood of exceeding 400 millimetres include parts of Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania. ALSO READ: Rwf35bn project to control floods in volcanoes region For Rwanda, officials say the forecast is a reminder that preparedness must begin before the rains arrive. Strengthening early warning systems, clearing drainage channels, protecting critical infrastructure and ensuring communities understand how to respond to warnings will be essential to reducing the human and economic toll of floods and landslides if the predicted El Niño conditions materialise.
