135 years of disputes over the Nile: How we got here

The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement divided the estimated available Nile flow between Egypt and Sudan, allocating 55.5 billion cubic metres to Egypt and 18.5 billion to Sudan. Ethiopia was not a party to the agreement and had protested that it had not been consulted. Neither were the other Nile Basin states, including Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Burundi, the DR Congo and South Sudan. ALSO READ: Rwanda installs flood monitors on Nile Basin rivers, lake In October 2024, the Nile Basin's Cooperative Framework Agreement finally entered into force after South Sudan joined the treaty, creating a new framework based on principles including equitable and reasonable use of the basin's waters. Egypt and Sudan did not join. The CFA changed the legal framework around the Nile without settling how much water each country can claim. For Rwanda, the stakes are practical: Nile Basin cooperation supports projects in energy, water security, irrigation and climate resilience, including the 80 MW Rusumo Falls hydropower project. Ethiopia now says three more dams are in the pipeline. To understand how we got here, we go back to 1891. ALSO READ: Govt set to green key districts to protect Nile river sources from pollution 1891: Britain and Italy sign the first Nile agreement, delimiting their colonial spheres of influence across East Africa. Article 3 obliges Italy not to build irrigation works on the Atbara River. Ethiopia, from whose highlands roughly 85 percent of the Nile's annual flow is generated, is not consulted. The river is a colonial instrument before it is a water governance question. 1902 / 1906: Further colonial-era treaties between Ethiopia and European powers. Egypt later argues these treaties obligate Ethiopia not to interfere with Nile flows, a reading Ethiopia disputes entirely. 1929: Britain, acting on behalf of its East African colonies — Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania — negotiates the first major water-sharing agreement with Egypt. ALSO READ: Rwanda secures $39m to restore Congo-Nile Divide The result: Egypt receives 48 billion cubic metres annually and gains the legal right to veto any upstream water project across the entire basin. The upstream countries whose territories the river actually crosses have no voice. Crucially, even Egypt at this point is under British colonial influence, making the 1929 agreement, as one legal scholar put it, “not an arms-length negotiation between two sovereign nations.” 1956: Sudan gains independence and immediately rejects the 1929 agreement as a colonial relic it was never party to as a sovereign state. 1959: Egypt wants to build the High Aswan Dam. The World Bank demands a water use agreement as a condition of financing. Egypt presents the 1929 agreement; Sudan, now independent, refuses. Negotiations produced a new bilateral agreement on November 8, 1959. The result: Egypt's allocation is raised to 55.5 billion cubic metres (66 percent of the river's total flow of 84 BCM). Sudan receives 18.5 BCM. The two countries together allocate 100 percent of the Nile between themselves. Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, the DRC, none are parties. None are consulted. The agreement also extends Egypt and Sudan's veto power over upstream projects and includes a secret clause: should any upstream country raise objections, Egypt and Sudan agree to present a unified front against them. 1999: The Nile Basin Initiative is launched by the water ministers of ten countries, including Egypt and Sudan, with a mandate to negotiate a basin-wide cooperative framework that would finally replace the colonial agreements with something inclusive. 2007: After eight years of negotiation, the text of the Cooperative Framework Agreement is complete, except for one unresolved clause: Article 14(b), on water security. Upstream countries want the agreement to state that no country shall significantly affect the water security of another. Egypt and Sudan insist the language must protect their current uses and rights — i.e., their 1959 allocations. The upstream countries reject that formulation. Negotiations collapse. May 14, 2010: Upstream countries open the CFA for signature without Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda signed immediately in Entebbe. Kenya and Burundi follow. Egypt and Sudan walk out. The CFA, also known as the Entebbe Agreement, is now a treaty signed by six countries and rejected by the two who control the downstream flow — and the money. 2013–2023: The six signatory countries ratify the CFA one by one over a decade of slow domestic legislative processes. Kenya signed the initial 2010 agreement but has not yet deposited its final ratification documents. July 8, 2024: South Sudan's parliament unanimously ratifies the CFA, bringing the total to six ratifications — the minimum threshold for the treaty to enter into force. September 4, 2024: The African Union, acting as depositary, formally confirms the ratification count. October 13, 2024: The CFA officially enters into force. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed calls it a Nile family moment and invites non-signatories to join. Egypt and Sudan reject it outright. The treaty is now legally binding — for the six countries that signed it. Egypt and Sudan are not bound by it, do not recognize it, and continue to operate under the 1959 framework. September 9, 2025: Ethiopia inaugurates Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Weeks later, it announces plans for three additional Blue Nile dams. Egypt's position: the 1929 and 1959 treaties still apply. Ethiopia's position: it was never a party to them and never will be.

News

135 years of disputes over the Nile: How we got here