The government is strengthening its disaster preparedness and emergency financing systems as the country braces for potentially wetter-than-normal conditions linked to El Niño. Since August, the Ministry in Charge of Emergency Management (MINEMA) and its partners have rehearsed procedures to be followed in the event of a major crisis, including floods, landslides and other eligible emergencies. The exercise, conducted under the Contingent Emergency Response Project (CERP), followed warnings of potentially heavy rainfall associated with El Niño, a natural climate pattern characterised by the periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that can influence rainfall patterns and increase the risk of floods and landslides. CERP is a World Bank-supported financing mechanism that enables the Government to rapidly access and repurpose financing from existing World Bank-funded projects to respond to eligible emergencies and crises. ALSO READ: Rwanda identifies 326 disaster hotspots amid regional flood crisis According to MINEMA, government institutions and partners tested emergency assessment, crisis response planning, fund mobilisation and early implementation while strengthening inter-institutional coordination and clarifying roles and responsibilities. The disaster-response simulation, held on August 10 and 11, brought together government institutions, partners and World Bank technical teams. It was designed to ensure that Rwanda can rapidly activate, manage and account for emergency financing when a crisis occurs. Permanent Secretary of MINEMA, Aristarque Ngoga, said preparedness goes beyond having resources available. “Preparedness is not only about having resources available; it is also about ensuring that institutions understand their roles and can act quickly and in a coordinated manner when an emergency occurs. The CERP simulation allows us to identify and address potential gaps before they affect our response to a real crisis,” he said. The exercise covered crisis eligibility and activation decisions, preparation of a Crisis Response Plan, activation request procedures, fund flows and disbursement arrangements, procurement, and environmental and social requirements. It also helped identify potential coordination and implementation gaps that could delay the activation or use of emergency financing. More financing for disaster preparedness Rwanda has also submitted an $86.2 million funding proposal to the Global Shield against Climate Risks to strengthen emergency response and disaster preparedness in vulnerable areas, according to MINEMA. As of July 2026, €10 million had already been approved. The Global Shield, launched in 2022 by the G7 and the V20 Group, supports vulnerable countries to improve financial protection against climate-related disasters, including floods, droughts, storms and heatwaves, through pre-arranged financing. Rwanda joined the initiative in 2024 as part of efforts to strengthen its financial resilience to climate shocks. ALSO READ: Govt steps up flood preparedness as strong El Niño looms Wetter season expected The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 74), held in Rwanda from August 17 to 18, discussed the potential impacts of El Niño and the outlook for the October-December (OND) 2026 rainfall season. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), together with national meteorological and hydrological services and partners, has forecast an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the Greater Horn of Africa. The OND season is particularly important for the equatorial and southern parts of the region. It contributes up to 70 per cent of annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, and up to 40 per cent in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda. Current Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures indicate that El Niño has developed and is expected to strengthen during the remainder of 2026. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to remain in a positive phase, conditions that generally contribute to enhanced rainfall over the region during the OND season. The regional forecast indicates a high likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions, with a more than 90 per cent chance of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia and north-eastern Kenya. It also indicates a high likelihood of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400mm in parts of central and southern Somalia, central Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, Burundi, western Rwanda and western Tanzania. Aimable Gahigi, Director General of Meteo Rwanda, said Rwanda could receive more than 400mm of rainfall during the season. ALSO READ: Northern Province hit by 1,500 disaster cases over past five years “The whole picture of Rwanda’s upcoming rainfall will be announced on Friday,” he said. Gahigi said the impact of this year’s El Niño could resemble conditions experienced in 1997 and 2023, when wetter-than-normal conditions were recorded across much of the region between October and December. The latest outlook suggests that several parts of East Africa could experience significantly heavier rainfall than usual. Western Rwanda, Burundi, the Lake Victoria region, parts of Kenya, Somalia and western Tanzania have more than a 90 per cent chance of receiving over 400mm during the season. This increases the risk of flooding and landslides in Rwanda, particularly in areas already identified as disaster-prone. Measures already in place MINEMA said 4,785 households were relocated from high-risk zones in 2026, while 5,095 households whose homes were destroyed by disasters in 2023 have been resettled. Lightning protection systems have also been installed at public gathering places in Rutsiro and Ngororero. ALSO READ: Over 650 households displaced by River Mukungwa floods to be relocated The country has established 14 emergency evacuation sites and emergency relief warehouses in Kigali, Musanze, Kayonza and Karongi. Nearly 4,000 people have participated in disaster preparedness training and simulation exercises. Rwanda has also operationalised a 24/7 National Emergency Command Centre to coordinate disaster response. Nine of the country’s 28 district command posts have so far been equipped to oversee disaster preparedness, response and recovery. The Ministry of Agriculture manages strategic food reserves in Nyanza, Kicukiro, Nyagatare, Nyabihu, Nyamagabe, Bugesera and Kayonza to support emergency relief operations. A Risk Governance Assessment identified 18,417 elements at risk and gave the country an overall resilience rating of 46 per cent, classified as moderate. Places of worship were identified as the most exposed, with 4,125 facilities, followed by 3,270 education institutions and 2,186 markets and commercial buildings. Other vulnerable assets include accommodation facilities, offices, health facilities, agricultural land, housing, transport infrastructure, industries, energy facilities, water systems and emergency management infrastructure. Rubavu District Mayor Prosper Mulindwa said the district has allocated Rwf201 million in the 2026/27 financial year to construct houses for vulnerable families living in high-risk areas. Over the past five years, disasters have damaged more than 16,600 houses and destroyed 2,700 homes. They have also affected hundreds of classrooms, bridges, roads, electricity lines, churches, health facilities and markets. Crop losses exceeded 7,000 hectares, while 478 hectares of forests were damaged. Disasters also killed 376 cattle and about 4,400 other livestock.
