Fresh economic shocks driven by global conflict, rising commodity prices, and declining aid flows risk pushing more than 20 million people across sub-Saharan Africa into moderate or severe food insecurity, reversing gains made since the pandemic, according to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The warning came during the national launch of the April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook on May 6, where the IMF cautioned that recent progress in stabilising African economies is now under strain, with food systems emerging as one of the most immediate pressure points.

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Titled "Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure,” the report highlights the sharp rise in global food, fuel, and fertiliser prices, largely driven by ongoing war in the Middle East, which continues to disrupt global supply chains and exert pressure on import-dependent African economies.

Minister of Finance and Economic Planning Yusuf Murangwa said the government’s approach remains pragmatic, with policy responses adjusted in line with evolving shocks rather than fixed prescriptions, as the focus remains on securing essential supplies and maintaining economic stability.

"We closely monitor issues related to petroleum and diesel to ensure they continue to support various sectors of the economy. The priority is to keep businesses operating despite disruptions in supply routes and markets,” he said.

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Murangwa noted that policy decisions are guided by changing conditions rather than predetermined positions.

"We don’t have a pre-prescribed policy position because the situation requires a lot of pragmatism depending on what is happening. That allows us to take action based on evolving conditions.”

He further stressed that ensuring supply remains the top priority.

"The most important issue is ensuring supply so that the economy can continue to function. Subsidisation is not the main focus now; the priority is ensuring availability of supplies so that the economy keeps running.”

The warning comes at a time when the region had begun to recover, with economic growth reaching about 4.5 per cent in 2025, the fastest pace in over a decade, supported by improved policies and favourable global conditions.

Growth to weaken

However, that momentum is expected to weaken, with growth projected to ease to 4.3 per cent in 2026, as new shocks ripple through economies and households.

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Soraya Hakuziyaremye, the Governor of the Central Bank, said that maintaining macroeconomic stability requires continued vigilance, particularly against inflationary pressures driven by food and imported prices.

"We are navigating unprecedented times, marked by six consecutive years of shocks, from the COVID-19 pandemic to inflationary pressures and now geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting economies across the continent,” she said.

"Inflation rose from 7 per cent last year to 9.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, and pressures are expected to persist due to energy shocks and supply chain disruptions,” she said.

"As external concessional financing becomes more constrained, policy must remain focused on protecting the most vulnerable through well-targeted and time-bound interventions,” she added.

Hakuziyaremye highlighted that Rwanda’s growth ambitions remain strong, but unlocking them will require sustained structural reforms like improvements in governance, and a more efficient business environment.

"These reforms represent a clear opportunity to unlock a dividend that can support higher and more inclusive growth over the medium term. Building internal resilience has become more urgent, particularly through strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation, improving public spending efficiency, and enhancing institutional capacity,” she said.

"For reforms to succeed and endure, reforms must be grounded in trust, supported by transparent communication, accountability, and continuous engagement with citizens,” she added.

Effects unevenly distributed

The effects are not evenly distributed. Countries that rely heavily on food imports and have limited fiscal space are particularly vulnerable. Many of these economies are already grappling with high debt levels, inflation pressures and reduced external support.

Compounding the challenge is the region’s exposure to climate shocks. Floods and droughts continue to disrupt agricultural output, while supply chain issues linked to fertiliser shortages further weaken resilience.

Montfort Mlachila, the IMF advisor at the African Department, warned that the impact of current global shocks will vary widely across countries, depending on their economic fundamentals and policy buffers, with more vulnerable economies facing sharper slowdowns already.

"The impact is not uniform. While the general growth may appear only slightly lower, many countries, especially oil importers, could see growth decline by as much as 1.5 to 2.5 per cent, which is significant in real terms,” he said.

"Countries that entered this period with strong fundamentals like low inflation, manageable deficits and adequate reserves, are better placed to withstand the shock. But a large number of economies remain highly vulnerable, particularly those with limited fiscal space and high exposure to external shocks.”

The IMF urges countries to prioritise targeted and time-bound support for the most vulnerable populations rather than broad subsidies, which are costly and often inefficient.

According to the report, strengthening social protection systems, improving domestic revenue collection and enhancing public spending efficiency are highlighted as key responses.

At the same time, investment in agriculture, infrastructure and regional trade is seen as critical to building resilience against future shocks, according to the report.