IMF cuts Rwanda’s growth forecast to 6.8% amid Middle East conflict

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered Rwanda’s economic growth forecast for 2026, pointing to the effects of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The fund now expects Rwanda’s economy to expand by 6.8 per cent, down from an earlier projection of 7.2 per cent. ALSO READ: Rwanda's economy to grow 7.2% in 2026: IMF forecast The revision was announced at a press conference in Kigali following the conclusion of the IMF mission on April 2. The mission found that Rwanda’s economy grew strongly in 2025, with GDP rising by 9.4 per cent, surpassing earlier expectations. IMF team representative Albert Touna Mama said last year’s growth was supported by rapid expansion in the third and fourth quarters, around 8 per cent, and by accelerated construction of the new Kigali International Airport, which is expected to be completed soon. “Unfortunately, the war in the Middle East weighs on Rwanda’s economic outlook. Inflation, fiscal, and trade pressures continue due to higher global oil and fertiliser prices, as well as financing needs for large strategic projects,” he explained. ALSO READ: How could the US-Israel war on Iran affect Rwanda? He added that while fuel prices have risen sharply in the region, prices in Rwanda have remained moderate, and this is expected to continue over the next few months. “This is a testament to the resilience of the economy.” However, Mama added that the country’s economy has limits to how much it can absorb. “The package of reforms and policies we’ve discussed with the authorities is appropriate to respond to potential shocks as we move through the year,” he said. The IMF mission noted several global risks, including commodity price volatility, weaker international demand, trade tensions, and tighter financing conditions. It also noted that Rwanda’s strong policies, private investment potential, and steady trade flows provide some room for optimism. Finance Minister Yusuf Murangwa said the 6.8 per cent forecast is a balanced and conservative estimate, designed so that any errors are likely to be positive rather than negative. ALSO READ: Rwanda’s economy beats expectations, expands 9.4% in 2025 “We are working closely with the private sector, providing liquidity support, and using diplomatic channels to secure alternative oil sources. We are also keeping the public informed about the measures being taken to reduce the impact of global shocks.” During the mission, the IMF approved a $250 million (Rwf365 billion) support program over 38 months, pending final approval by the Executive Board in June. Under the new Extended Credit Facility (ECF), the program is intended to boost private sector-led growth, maintain economic stability, address trade and budget imbalances, and strengthen government policy buffers. The IMF also emphasised the importance of a credible medium-term fiscal strategy, including adoption of MTRS-II, a framework for improving revenue collection and public finances, stronger oversight of foreign-financed capital spending, better fiscal risk management for state-owned enterprises, and careful prioritization of spending while protecting social services. Finally, the mission recommended greater flexibility in the exchange rate and regular price-based auctions to strengthen Rwanda’s ability to absorb shocks and rebuild international reserves.

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IMF cuts Rwanda’s growth forecast to 6.8% amid Middle East conflict