Throughout history, there have been numerous pandemics that have affected millions of people worldwide. From the Antonine Plague of AD 165-180, which had an impact on five million individuals, to present-day outbreaks that cover vast regions of the globe and affect millions of people.

Despite significant advancements in science and medicine, the danger of infectious diseases spreading is on the rise. The risk of outbreaks becoming epidemics or pandemics is also increasing. There are many factors involved in the frequency and coverage of pandemics.

While the world is being ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic modelling taking several factors into account shows that the next pandemic could be much closer than we think. Thorough preparedness for timely action and financing for those mitigation strategies are key to ensuring we do not have a repeat of the current pandemic.

The future, therefore, demands strong collaborations of countries and international organisations in defending the upcoming pandemics. As overwhelming as the effects of Covid-19 have been on all our lives, scientists were not surprised — they have been predicting a pandemic for years.

The fact is, despite huge scientific and medical advances, today the potential for diseases to spread is actually increasing, and so is the risk of outbreaks escalating into epidemics or pandemics.

A massive increase in globalisation and connectivity means that a virus or other pathogen can spread from one side of the world to another in mere hours.

It’s difficult to make a broad generalisation about the level of knowledge of communities regarding pandemics prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, as it would depend on various factors such as the region, the education level of the population, the availability and accessibility of information, and the severity and frequency of previous pandemics in that area.

However, it is fair to say that in many parts of the world, the topic of pandemics and their potential impact on society was not at the forefront of public discourse before the Covid-19 pandemic.

In some regions, there may have been a lack of awareness or understanding of the concept of pandemics, their causes, and their potential consequences. In other areas, pandemics may have been considered a remote or unlikely possibility, and therefore not given much attention.

Modern scientists believe that there are several reasons why we are seeing more infectious disease epidemics in recent years. One of the main reasons is the increased global interconnectedness and mobility of people and goods, which allows diseases to spread more quickly and easily across borders.

This includes the rise of air travel, which can transport infected individuals from one part of the world to another in a matter of hours.

Another reason is the encroachment of human activity into previously untouched natural habitats, which can bring humans into closer contact with animals that may carry new and potentially dangerous pathogens.

This human-animal contact can lead to zoonotic spillover events, where diseases that were previously confined to animal populations jump to humans.

Climate change may also be a contributing factor, as rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns can alter the distribution and behaviour of disease vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks.

The world is transitioning to being more urban, meaning an increasing number of people living in overcrowded and unhygienic environments in which infectious diseases can thrive, without adequate health systems that can deal with these threats.

There is also the overuse of antibiotics and other antimicrobial drugs that has led to the emergence of drug-resistant pathogens, which are much more difficult to treat and can quickly spread through populations.

In between these pandemics is what we now refer to as peacetime periods. These are periods when the world starts preparing for the next potential epidemic or pandemic. We should continue to strengthen global health systems; investing in strong health systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries to detect and respond to outbreaks. This includes building robust surveillance systems, improving laboratory capacity, and training healthcare workers.

Another important step is to improve pandemic preparedness. Countries and international organisations should develop and regularly update pandemic preparedness plans that include strategies for early detection, rapid response, and effective communication in communities.

This includes stockpiling essential medical supplies, such as personal protective equipment. The Covid-19 pandemic showed us the importance of international cooperation since infectious diseases do not respect national borders, so international cooperation is essential for responding to pandemics.

This includes sharing data, expertise, and resources to prevent the spread of disease and minimise its impact. The world should continue to increase investment in research and development of new vaccines. When we use lessons from the past, we then can be prepared for the next global pandemic.

Dr Vincent Mutabazi is an applied epidemiologist