This week, precisely on Tuesday, June 23—and the resignation of a sixth Prime Minister a day earlier—marked exactly 10 years since the United Kingdom (UK) decided to part ways with the European Union (EU). I followed the media coverage of that eventful night minute by minute. The morning after, June 24, 2016, was a chaotic day in Brussels following what appeared to be an unexpected political earthquake with its epicentre in London.

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British Conservative Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) were bombarded with questions they had no answers for: When would the UK actually leave the EU? What happens next? Was Prime Minister David Cameron going to resign? This last question was quickly answered, as the Prime Minister stepped down just hours after the Brexit vote. Even he could not have anticipated what had just happened.

Some EU officials were reported to have broken down in tears at their desks. Senior British EU civil servants were preparing to resign and leave Brussels, as they believed they no longer had any role to play there. They could not believe what had just happened. When David Cameron called for a referendum on "Leave” or "Remain,” he hoped to silence the Eurosceptic wing of his Conservative Party. The vote did not go his way. Instead, the Prime Minister went down in history as the leader who took the UK out of the largest economic bloc and set the stage for the current instability in British politics.

EU officials feared a domino effect. There was talk of "Frexit” (France leaving) and "Swexit” (Sweden leaving). Shock, sadness, anger, confusion, and fear took over the atmosphere in Brussels. EU lawyers were busy trying to figure out what to do next. Was it possible to accelerate the triggering of Article 50—the then untested EU exit clause? After four years of complex negotiations, the UK finally left the EU in 2020.

Fast forward a decade: the EU has moved on and learned to live without the UK after the initial shock and confusion. The domino effect did not materialize. Experts believe the final deal reached for the UK’s departure was largely in the EU’s favour. The EU negotiated from a stronger position and drove a hard bargain, while the UK was relatively weaker in the negotiations. The final trade and cooperation agreement is widely considered to favour the EU.

Decision-making within EU institutions is believed to have become smoother with the UK, a frequent sceptic, no longer at the table. As for the UK, experts believe it has experienced a decade of political instability and economic decline, as the country prepares to welcome its seventh Prime Minister in that period. Many believe Brexit has not delivered the "better Britain” promised by the Leave campaign.

According to the UK’s own Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Brexit has reduced the country’s productivity by about 4%. Business investment has fallen by 12–18% compared to a non-Brexit scenario. According to HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) Global Investment Research, border checks alone cost the UK £4.7 billion ($5.9 billion) up to 2024. The British pound has weakened against the US dollar compared to pre-Brexit levels.

All key indicators suggest that Britain has underperformed in the post-Brexit period. Ten years on, "Brejoin” sentiments are gaining momentum. According to a June 2026 YouGov poll, 57 percent of Britons now believe leaving the EU was the wrong decision, compared to 30 percent who believe it was the right one.

Was this the greatest act of national self-sabotage? If one reads How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi by Idrees Kahloon in The Atlantic and many other studies and reports, one may be inclined to agree. However, history will provide the final answer.

The writer is a keen observer of global affairs.