Rwanda produces most of the food it needs, yet more than half of what is consumed is imported. This stark contradiction is seen in the recent published report by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR).

According to NISR’s 2023/24 Rwanda Food Balance Sheets, the country’s Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) stood at 79.2 per cent in 2024, meaning the country produces nearly four-fifths of the food required to feed its population.

However, 56 per cent of food consumed domestically still depends on imports.

The report shows a slight decline in food self-sufficiency, down from 79.8 per cent in 2023.

Experts attribute the heavy reliance on imports to population growth, changing dietary preferences, industrial demand, and global trade dynamics.

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Jean Claude Mwizerwa, Deputy Director General at NISR, said the self-sufficiency figure is calculated based on calorie and nutrient requirements, assuming all food is produced locally and excluding trade flows.

"The 79.2 per cent assumes that all required food items are produced within the country,” Mwizerwa said. "But the 56 per cent reflects actual consumption, taking into account exports where we have surpluses and imports where there are production gaps.”

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Mwizerwa uses a practical example to illustrate the trade-off.

"In the open market, locals are competing with what is happening across the world,” he noted. "Take an example of sugar which we do not produce enough of versus coffee which we export and consume little. Those are the dynamics.”

Food imports rise

According to the 2024 Rwanda Country Economic Memorandum report by the World Bank, the value of food imports rose from around $400 million in 2015 to $1.1 billion in 2022, or from 15.4 per cent of total imports to 22 per cent over the same period.

The value of food exports rose by less, from $530 million in 2015 to $800 million in 2022, and the share of exports fell from 46.5 per cent to 27.2 per cent.

These figures imply that Rwanda is a net food importer, spending more money on food it imports than the revenues it earns from exports.

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According to the report, prices of domestically produced rice, for instance, have generally been lower than those of the imported rice from Pakistan and Tanzania, which has enabled local producers to expand in rural markets.

However, in urban areas and the hospitality industry, competition with imported rice has been tough on the grounds of quality and variety, calling for further investments in market-oriented seed systems and efficient and innovative production systems to reduce the cost of production, the report indicated.

The report shows that the quality of domestically produced rice is usually not sufficient to compete successfully with imports.

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Professor Alfred Bizoza, a renowned economist and agricultural expert, told The New Times that the issue is deeply tied to the country’s industrial ambitions.

He pointed out that many local products actually rely on foreign raw materials.

"The fact that we still import majority of what we consume means that we do not have the local capacity to produce those products needed in the country,” Bizoza said. "Which implies those imports include raw materials to produce different products including those from agriculture.”

He mentioned wheat processing as a prime example.

"If you go to local small processing facilities, you will find that they produce wheat flour. Where do they get the raw material? Some raw material comes from different countries,” Bizoza explained.

Bizoza noted that as purchasing power improves, people naturally diversify what they can eat, and therefore, what they can buy from local and international markets.

What should be done?

Laurent Ndagijimana, the Chairperson of the Rwanda Forum of Rice Milling, sees the population growth and production capacity as factors for the increase of reliance on imports.

"Rice is among the food products the country imports in high quantities,” he said. Adding that local production of rice satisfies only about 48 per cent of the national demand. "The rest must be imported from abroad.”

Rwanda has 28 rice processing plants scattered across the country. These factories are ready to work, but they often sit idle for long stretches. There simply isn’t enough raw paddy rice to process.

"The industries operate below their capacity,” Ndagijimana explained. "Our industries produce at around 35 per cent of their capacity given the available harvest.”

The current output sits between 60,000 and 70,000 tonnes per season before processing, while the average yield is about 4.8 tonnes per hectare.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), in its Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5), admits that achieving 100 percent self-sufficiency is currently elusive.

The barrier is not just land or labor, but the tools needed to farm.

PSTA 5 strategy report shows the sector is "highly dependent on imports for key agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers, pesticides, and improved seeds.”

This dependency creates a ceiling on how self-sufficient Rwanda can truly be. The strategy notes that relying on external inputs makes the sector "vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions and price volatility.”

Bizoza suggests the solutions to reduce food imports lies in improving technical efficiency and increasing government budget allocation within its resources.

"On the efficient part, this involves proper use and management of land,” he said, highlighting that innovation in agriculture technology is key.

The economist added that the government should continue promoting agribusiness and agriculture hubs across the country through public and private partnerships.

Bizoza said there is a need to increase investment in agriculture. "When you look at the percentage that is being allocated to agriculture... it’s less than 10 percent.”

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He also calls for ‘import substitution,’ urging the country to produce the things it currently buys from abroad, provided it makes economic sense.

"Better storage is also crucial. Too much food is lost after the harvest because of poor warehousing. Improving these facilities would ensure that what is grown actually makes it to the market.”

The government’s PSTA 5 plan aligns with this, targeting national food sovereignty. The strategy targets increased national production and food reserve capacity, aiming to buffer the population against future shocks.