After the Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board (RMB) released the second edition of its Mining Investment Pitchbook for 2025 during Rwanda Mining Week, Yousif Ahmed, an oil and gas expert at RMB, has discussed the hydrocarbon potential of the Lake Kivu Basin.

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A hydrocarbon is a chemical compound that is the main constituent of oil (petroleum) and natural gas.

Recent studies show promising hydrocarbon potential in the Lake Kivu Basin, he said. Surveys covering 3,438 square kilometres indicate that the basin reaches depths of up to 5km. 12 exploration leads along with one defined prospect have been mapped.

In oil and gas exploration, "leads” are early-stage, preliminary indications of where hydrocarbons might be trapped underground.

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Prospects are well-defined, drill-ready opportunities where sufficient geological and geophysical evidence exists to justify drilling an exploration well.

Geochemical tests on core samples further confirm the presence of thermogenic hydrocarbons, suggesting favourable conditions for future petroleum exploration in the basin.

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Lake Kivu Basin is structurally divided into three sub-basins—Northern, Central, and Southern—with the Central and Southern sections reaching depths of more than 5,000 metres, making them especially favourable for oil and gas generation.

In an exclusive interview with The New Times reporter Michel Nkurunziza, Ahmed emphasised exploration and investment opportunities.

Excerpts

Why did you choose to present the hydrocarbon potential of the Lake Kivu Basin during Rwanda Mining Week?

We chose to present it because this event brings together investors, participants, and stakeholders.

It is a large gathering, mainly focused on mining, and management decided to take the opportunity to showcase the hydrocarbon potential of the Lake Kivu Basin.

However, this presentation does not replace the more detailed technical presentations that will later be made specifically to oil companies, who understand the industry’s technical language.

Those will follow shortly.

You mentioned exploration and production opportunities. What are the signs of oil in the Lake Kivu Basin?

The Lake Kivu Basin is promising because the Government of Rwanda has already acquired technical data, including seismic, gravity, and geochemical surveys. All these indicate hydrocarbon potential.

The subsurface geology and structural characteristics are similar to the Albert Basin (between Uganda and DR Congo), which is already producing commercial petroleum. Both lie within the same rift system and share similar geology, tectonics, and subsurface structures.

If the Albert Basin contains oil, there is a strong possibility that Lake Kivu does as well. The exact size of the resource cannot be known until drilling takes place.

However, seismic, gravity, magnetic, and geochemical data all show positive indications of hydrocarbon potential. These results suggest that significant resources could be unlocked.

What is your message to potential investors?

What is needed now is an investor. Investors can use the existing data to develop their exploration strategies, design their exploration programmes, and begin unlocking the basin’s potential.

At this stage, the priority is to attract investors. Rwanda is an attractive place for business. It is a matter of presenting the available data and clearly demonstrating the basin’s potential. Hopefully, one or two investors will be interested in committing to exploration in the Lake Kivu Basin.

In the oil sector, exploration is carried out by the investor or contractor, who assumes the financial risk.

Fortunately, part of the exploration work has already been completed by the Government of Rwanda, which has acquired seismic, gravity, and geochemical data. This early data acquisition is highly beneficial.

You talked about the presence of 12 potential leads. What does that mean?

Seismic data provides an image of the subsurface. Geologists interpret this data and identify locations where hydrocarbons could accumulate. These locations are called "leads”. There are 12 potential leads in the Lake Kivu Basin.

Investors may later refine these leads through new seismic surveys such as infill lines or 3D seismic, which can confirm the presence, size, and shape of each lead. These leads represent possible hydrocarbon traps.

One participant raised concerns about environmental safety. What do say about that?

Oil companies strictly comply with environmental laws, and major companies enforce strict HSSE (Health, Safety, Security, and Environment) standards. Employees who fail to follow safety procedures can be dismissed immediately.

Rwanda already operates methane gas extraction on Lake Kivu with no environmental damage, demonstrating that modern technology can achieve safe resource extraction.

Therefore, there should be no concern about ecological harm, as companies must comply with rigorous environmental regulations.

Based on existing studies, have you estimated the volume of the reserves?

At this stage, it is difficult to estimate the volume of reserves because half of the basin is not yet covered by data. The Government of Rwanda has so far surveyed only the northern and central parts. The southern portion remains unexplored. Investors will need to conduct further work, and reserves can only be confirmed through drilling.

So, what is the next step?

The next step is for the Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board and the Rwanda Development Board to invite oil companies for negotiations. They will work towards signing a Production Sharing Agreement (PSA), which will define the minimum required work programme.

Once an agreement is reached, investors can begin exploration, which requires significant capital and risk-taking capacity which are the qualities that major and independent oil companies possess.