REVOLUTION… Or NOT?

This article was inspired by the television program “empire” on Aljazeera, on April 21st, 2011. Those who have been closely following the ongoing unrest in the Arab world, are in position to debate with me on whether we are about to witness one of the greatest revolutions in the history of the 21st century. Look at Libya, Yemen, Egypt, Syria, Tunisia and others who have been under despotic or an unrealistic kind of rule for years and are suddenly staging a significant uprising that has left the rest of the world anxious for the unknown. What happens next? What is the next move for the Arab world? How important is regime change in Libya to the effectiveness of the wide spread uprisings? Is the conflict between them and Israel relevant to this situation? Is the intervention of USA, France and other powers only for economic benefit? Are the youth of Egypt and Tunisia playing a major role in determining the impact of the ruling bodies on the people of these countries? What is the role of the satellite media in the political and social atmosphere of the region? Basically, there are a million and one questions, factors and effects that need to be reviewed. What happens next can only be a speculation. But what is true is that a change of regime in Libya is specifically important for the people in the Arab world because, following the deaths of protestors in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, there’s fear that if Qaddafi survives and clings to power, his way wins and therefore other governments may draw the same lessons from him. Whether the Israel-Palestine conflict is relevant in this case, is yours to figure out but, according to the Israeli Foreign Minister, there is no link between the two cases of conflict yet on the other hand, facts show that the Egyptian uprising roots from Egypt’s activism in Palestine as well as Mubarak’s collaboration with Israel. According to an essay by John Karagiannopoulos, the powers may be intervening on humanitarian grounds but primarily on economic and geopolitical grounds. Libya’s revolts have also triggered a rupture in oil production… being a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and holding the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, it is no wonder the US and the EU would like to react to the normalization of oil production as soon as possible. Voices and actions of the Arab youth have also captivated the world as the main leaders of the uprising. As victims of rampant unemployment rates, many are willing to die for their cause in protest while satellite media organs, are undoubtedly playing the central role in the unfolding drama. Public pressure is leading to more freedom of expression however; it is taking a very chaotic and disorganized form. At this stage I chose to side with Medhane Tadesse in believing that what is happening in the Arab world isn’t a revolution exactly, governments are collapsing but radical change isn’t in sight; that democratic changes are coming but democratic regimes are a distant prospect and another phase of ‘Mubarak’ is a possibility. If you’re thinking otherwise, you’re welcome to give me reason why. hozatash@yahoo.com