Rwanda Meteorological Agency has announced that from September to December, 2022, there are higher chances of decrease in rains compared to previous period last year and before. “September-October-November-December season is one of the main rainy seasons in Rwanda. The National consensus on climate outlook for the September to December 2022 season indicates higher chances of below-normal rainfall conditions over many parts of the country,” reads the statement released on Friday August 26. The agency said the expected rainfall may lead to extreme weather phenomena such as dry spells in some parts. However, it adds that there are some areas that are likely to face localized flooding, landslides, strong winds and other extreme weather-related events in some parts of the country. “Meteo Rwanda, in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board (RAB), Ministry in Charge of Emergency Management (MINEMA) and other partners, will continue to support different initiatives aimed at availing weather and climate products for effective planning and decision making especially in weather extreme prone areas,” it adds. The key factors expected to influence rainfall are colder than normal Sea Surface Temperature in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. “These conditions are expected to persist throughout the season,” the weatherman said. The conditions in the oceans are linked with reduced rainfall over East Africa, including Rwanda, due to reduced advection of moisture from the ocean to the land, the agency explained. Rainfall ranging between 200-300 millimeter is expected in most parts of Eastern Province, over Amayaga region, specifically in many parts of Gisagara and eastern parts of Nyanza, and over parts of Kicukiro, Gasabo and Gicumbi districts bordering Eastern Province. Rainfall ranging between 300-400milimeters is expected in most parts of Northern Province except in Musanze and northwestern parts of Burera District. It is also likely in Kigali City, Southern Province, except over most parts of Nyamagabe, northern parts of Nyaruguru, most parts of Ngororero and southwestern parts of Nyabihu District. Rainfall ranging between 400-500 millimeters is expected in most parts of Musanze and northwestern parts of Burera district. It is also expected over most Western Province except parts of Ngororero and southeastern parts of Nyabihu district where rainfall between 300 and 400 mm is expected. The increase in millimeters means an increase in amount of rainfall. The rainfall is expected to start between August 30 and September 9 in Musanze, Burera, northern parts of Gakenke and Muhanga Districts and over most parts of Western Province except many parts of Rusizi District, eastern parts of Karongi and Nyamasheke, and southeastern parts of Ngororero District. Rainfall is expected to start between September 9 and 19, 2022 over the remaining parts of Northern Province, in most parts of Rusizi District, western parts of Karongi and Nyamasheke District and southeastern parts of Ngororero District. This is also expected in northern parts of Eastern province in Nyagatare and Gatsibo Districts, in most parts of Southern Province except in some parts of Amayaga region more specifically in eastern parts of Huye and Nyaruguru Districts, and over northern parts of Gasabo and Nyarugenge Districts in Kigali City. The rainfall onset over the remaining parts of Kigali City, Gisagara District, eastern parts of Kamonyi, Ruhango, Nyanza, Huye, Nyaruguru and many parts of Eastern Province except Nyagatare and most parts of Gatsibo Districts is likely to start between September 19 and 29, 2022. The end of the rainy season is expected between December 15 and 25, 2022 countrywide.
