The formation of a new movement led by former DR Congo President Joseph Kabila could broaden the political debate over the conflict in eastern DR Congo by linking insecurity in the east to wider concerns about governance, discrimination and political exclusion, analysts said.

The Front pour la refondation de la nation (FRN), or Front for the Refoundation of the Nation, was launched in Goma on Monday, October 12, with Kabila as its leader and ex-AFC/M23 leaders as his deputies.

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The FRN cites failures by President Félix Tshisekedi’s administration, including weak state institutions, insecurity, ethnic discrimination, corruption, electoral malpractice and deteriorating living conditions. It pledges to unite resistance forces and transform the state, including through the use of force.

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Analysts said Kabila’s political experience and networks beyond eastern DR Congo could give the coalition a broader national reach, potentially connecting grievances in the east with concerns about corruption, political exclusion and the management of the country’s natural resources.

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Aggee Shyaka Mugabe, a Congolese associate professor of transitional justice and peacebuilding at the University of Rwanda, said the coalition was presenting these grievances as national issues rather than concerns confined to the east.

"They are saying they were born to address all those issues and to make sure that the lives of the Congolese are dignified again, human rights are respected, justice is no longer at the disposal of those in power, judges are independent, investigations are fair, and everyone is treated equally,” he said.

"They have a very promising political project. The issue is whether they will be able to implement it the way it is in the text.”

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Mugabe said Kabila had previously spoken about lessons he learned after leaving office in 2019, including from the shortcomings of the Tshisekedi government.

"He himself mentioned that he learned so many lessons from the failure of the government that came after him,” Mugabe said.

Kabila’s alignment with the AFC/M23 is notable because his government fought the M23 when the group occupied Goma in 2012.

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Rwandan political analyst Albert Rudatsimburwa said Kabila’s presence could help the movement attract support in provinces such as Katanga, which has its own security issues.

"For the AFC/M23, it can only be positive because there is some followership in Congo around Kabila,” Rudatsimburwa said. "There are whole regions beyond the Kivu who would rather choose Kabila, like Katanga, which is the next biggest piece of Congo after the Kivus.”

Rudatsimburwa said Kabila’s presence in Goma, where the AFC/M23 administers swathes of territory, could also allow him to assess the movement directly.

"He can see the results for himself,” he said. "Before leading the new movement he was alone. But now, he’s joining something that is already working.”

"Kabila today might see things differently,” Rudatsimburwa said. "It’s an opportunity for him to do right what he did wrong in the past.”

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Diverse leadership and tribalism

The analysts also pointed to the backgrounds of the movement’s leadership and supporters as a test of whether it can challenge the ethnic divisions that have shaped political mobilisation in DR Congo.

Mugabe said the grievances cited by the FRN went beyond any single community, arguing that the movement’s appeal to people from different parts of the country could help shift attention towards shared political and economic concerns.

"It has clear messaging that the new movement is not built on the basis of a single community, and that also means that the issues that need to be addressed go beyond the claims of one or two communities,” Mugabe said.

"We have people from different regions of the country, and for me that is already a very positive sign,” he added. "It’s inclusive, which means that the issues that we are bringing on the table for discussions are real and affect the communities from different parts of the country.”

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Mugabe said the movement’s broader appeal could create an opportunity to address grievances that have persisted for years. However, he cautioned that its stated commitments would need to be translated into action.

"It sends a message of hope, but once again, it will depend on the seriousness of this new movement,” he said, referring to the hopes of Congolese Tutsi communities, including the Banyamulenge, and other displaced people for security and a return to their homes.

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Rudatsimburwa also argued that ethnic scapegoating had diverted attention from governance failures. He said anti-Tutsi and anti-Banyamulenge sentiments had intensified in recent years, making it easier for political actors to blame communities for wider national problems.

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Questioning Kabila’s motives, Rudatsimburwa said his decision could reflect both political survival and an opportunity to address past shortcomings.

"Is it just because it’s a way for him to survive? But I think also it’s an opportunity for him to do right what he did wrong in the past,” he said.

Former Rwandan diplomat and political commentator Joseph Mutaboba said the rights and citizenship of Congolese Tutsi, the security of vulnerable communities and the safe return of refugees should remain concrete subjects in any political settlement, rather than being used as bargaining instruments.

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Governance and the regional crisis

The FRN’s agenda includes issues of public accountability, the performance of state institutions, and insecurity. Rudatsimburwa said the crisis should be understood in the context of governance rather than tensions between communities.

"When people have misery, in general, it’s an easy virus that you can lay to the people to actually make them look in the wrong direction,” he said. "Like the problems are problems of governance, not problems of people.”

Mutaboba said the FRN’s launch marked a political reorganisation around Kabila, but did not by itself demonstrate a transformation of the coalition’s military structures.

"The clearest change is political,” he said.

He cautioned against treating the movement’s national ambitions as proof that it represented the country as a whole.

"A movement’s national claim is not proof of national legitimacy,” Mutaboba said. "That legitimacy must be demonstrated through an inclusive programme, public support, responsible conduct and a credible route towards constitutional government.”

He said any settlement would need to address political and institutional reforms, including military integration, decentralisation and the distribution of authority, alongside the rights of vulnerable communities and the return of refugees.

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Pressure on Kinshasa

The FRN’s formation gives Kabila a formal role in a movement challenging Tshisekedi’s government.

Ismael Buchanan, a senior lecturer of political science at the University of Rwanda, said the launch of the FRN could intensify political pressure on Kinshasa to consider dialogue rather than respond to the coalition solely through confrontation.

"President Tshisekedi will need to think twice before doing anything beyond peace talks... FRN seeks to position itself as a catalyst for systemic change,” he noted.

Mutaboba said the immediate diplomatic task was to clarify the FRN’s authority, assess how its commitments relate to existing peace agreements and determine whether its claim to national representation could translate into an enforceable political settlement.

Mugabe said the movement could draw support from people frustrated by rights violations, underdevelopment, inadequate infrastructure, corruption and unpaid public servants, particularly where public officials are perceived to be enriching themselves.

He said Kabila’s political networks could amplify opposition to the government and potentially encourage defections among political supporters.

But he warned that the response could also include further pressure on people suspected of supporting AFC/M23 or having links to the FRN. He said persecution of those suspected of backing the movement could deepen the political crisis in Kinshasa and elsewhere.

Rudatsimburwa said the shift could also affect Congolese soldiers (FARDC) on the frontlines, particularly if they began to lose confidence in the government’s military strategy. He reflected on how soldiers who fail to hold their positions or suffer setbacks are accused of treason, noting that that could potentially prompt some to reconsider their allegiance or join the new coalition.

"When they are sent now to the frontline, and if they fail, people might see them as traitors,” he said. "Then, they would rather join this new organisation.”

A test for peace talks

The Doha peace process, initiated in April 2025 under Qatar’s mediation, seeks to address the root causes of the conflict in eastern DR Congo by bringing the Congolese government and AFC/M23 together for negotiations. It complements the Washington Accords, which focus on security issues between DR Congo and Rwanda.

Mugabe said DR Congo had experienced more than 20 peace talks and agreements, but repeated negotiations had failed to ensure implementation or address the underlying causes of conflict. He said dialogue should include political opponents, armed groups, religious and social organisations, universities, think tanks, women, young people and minority communities.

"If you don't dialogue with your 'enemies', are you going to dialogue with your friends? Peace talks bring people who don't have the same understanding around the same table. They do not bring around the same type of friends, so I think this is a very basic thing that the government of Kinshasa needs to consider,” he said.

Rudatsimburwa said Tshisekedi could use Kabila’s alignment with the AFC/M23 as an excuse to withdraw from negotiations.

"Realistically, I would say yes, Tshisekedi can use it to say, ‘I'm not into the negotiations anymore.’ Fine. But then that won't provide a solution either,” he said.

He also warned that military developments on the ground could undermine diplomatic efforts, citing continued efforts by Kinshasa to acquire more mercenaries and weapons and ongoing attacks affecting Banyamulenge communities.