As a geologist, I have always been fascinated by what calm landscapes can conceal. Few places illustrate this better than Lake Kivu. To most visitors, the lake is first a place of remarkable beauty. For the communities living along its shores, it is part of everyday life. Yet beneath its calm waters lies an extraordinary geological system that Rwanda has already begun transforming into energy. Lake Kivu contains significant concentrations of naturally occurring methane and carbon dioxide dissolved in its deep waters. Rwanda is already generating electricity from this indigenous resource through operating methane-to-power projects, including KivuWatt and Shema Power. This demonstrates that a complex geological resource can be developed responsibly and converted into tangible value for the country. But methane may not be the end of Lake Kivu’s energy story. The lake forms part of the western branch of the East African Rift System. Over the years, Rwanda has progressively invested in understanding the deeper basin through seismic, gravity, magnetic and geochemical studies. The country has acquired 466 square kilometres of 2D seismic data and 3,438 line-kilometres of marine gravity and magnetic data, improving the technical understanding of the basin architecture and the geological structures beneath the lake. Comparisons with petroleum-bearing rift basins such as the Albertine, South Lokichar and Muglad basins are encouraging. The available evidence does not yet constitute a commercial petroleum discovery, but it provides a credible technical basis for the next phase of exploration. This distinction matters. Responsible exploration begins with evidence, not promises. Rwanda’s responsibility is to continue expanding its geological knowledge, reducing uncertainty and creating the conditions for technically capable partners to assess the basin responsibly. In my view, East Africa should not wait for complete certainty before investing in the data, expertise and partnerships required to assess its frontier basins. Certainty is rarely the starting point of exploration. It is the result of disciplined scientific work, sustained investment and the willingness to test geological potential responsibly. Rwanda’s experience with methane gives us confidence in this approach. It also reminds us that the successful development of a complex resource requires strong institutions, appropriate technology, environmental safeguards and long-term commitment. The next stage of the Lake Kivu story will therefore depend on partnership. Government alone cannot provide all the capital, technology and specialised expertise required to evaluate an emerging exploration frontier. Investors, operators, researchers, financiers and service companies each have an important role to play. Rwanda’s role is to provide a stable environment, credible technical information and a clear framework within which serious partnerships can develop. Even if future exploration confirms commercially viable resources, geology alone will not create prosperity. Resources must be connected to infrastructure, markets, finance, technical capacity and regional value chains. East Africa’s energy opportunities cannot be fully developed through isolated national projects. That is the conversation Rwanda will bring to the 12th East African Petroleum Conference and Exhibition, EAPCE’27. From 9 to 11 March 2027, Kigali will bring together policymakers, operators, investors, financiers, researchers and technology providers under the theme “From Energy Resources to Prosperity: Driving Energy Security, Growth and Global Competitiveness.” The conference will provide a platform for East African countries to present their petroleum potential, investment opportunities, regulatory frameworks and infrastructure priorities. For Rwanda, EAPCE’27 will be an opportunity to present Lake Kivu as an emerging exploration frontier supported by a growing body of technical evidence. More importantly, it will allow the country to engage serious partners capable of bringing the expertise, technology and patient capital required to determine what further potential the basin may hold. The objective extends beyond discovering or producing resources. Indigenous energy resources must ultimately contribute to affordable and reliable energy, industrial development, employment, stronger regional value chains and shared prosperity. Lake Kivu has already shown what becomes possible when geology, technology and purposeful public policy come together. Its next chapter will not be written by geology alone. It will be shaped by the quality of the science, firm commitment in conserving its ecological significance and the seriousness of the partnerships built around it. At EAPCE’27, Rwanda’s invitation will be clear: come with expertise, technology and patient investment, and let us leverage this opportunity responsibly, build regional energy security and transform geological potential into sustainable prosperity. The writer is the Chief Geo-Hazards Officer at the Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board and Chairperson of the EAPCE’27 Steering Committee.
