The government is seeking an additional $7 billion (about Rwf10.4 trillion) to close Rwanda’s climate finance gap by 2035, after mobilising $5 billion (about Rwf7.4 trillion) of the estimated $12 billion required. Teddy Mugabo, the Chief Executive Officer of Rwanda Green Fund, said the country has so far secured about 42 per cent of the financing needed to implement its climate action plan over the next decade. “We have already mobilised $5 billion to invest in projects to address climate change, and we are now looking for an additional $7 billion,” Mugabo said. The $12 billion requirement, equivalent to about Rwf17.8 trillion at current exchange rates, covers investments needed to strengthen Rwanda’s resilience to climate shocks and reduce greenhouse gas emissions through 2035. ALSO READ: Inside Rwanda’s Climate Finance Deals Mugabo said mobilising the remaining financing will require Rwanda to diversify its funding sources, particularly as global financing conditions continue to evolve. She said the Rwanda Green Fund will also explore ways of mobilising more domestic capital, including working with Rwandan investors through bonds and other financial instruments. The financing gap comes into focus ahead of major international climate meetings where climate finance is expected to feature prominently. They include the Carbon Markets Africa Summit, scheduled for October 13–15 in Kigali; the 17th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD COP17), from October 19–30 in Yerevan, Armenia; and the 38th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol (MOP38), from November 2–6 in Kigali. The UN climate summit, COP31, is scheduled for November 9–20 in Antalya, Türkiye. MOP38 will take place in a significant year for Rwanda and the Montreal Protocol community, marking 10 years since the adoption of the Kigali Amendment in October 2016. The amendment commits countries to gradually phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), powerful greenhouse gases widely used in refrigeration and air conditioning. Full implementation of the amendment could avoid up to 0.5°C of global warming by the end of the century, with additional benefits possible when the transition to climate-friendly refrigerants is combined with greater energy efficiency. The Kigali meeting will therefore provide an opportunity to assess progress in implementing the amendment and push for broader action. Adaptation takes largest share Environment Minister Bernadette Arakwiye said Rwanda will prioritise adaptation finance during negotiations at COP31, given the country’s vulnerability to climate shocks. “Although we are deepening our mitigation efforts, adaptation is Rwanda’s foremost climate priority,” she said. Of the approximately $12 billion Rwanda needs for its climate action plan through 2035, about $7.07 billion (Rwf10.5 trillion) is earmarked for adaptation measures, while $4.96 billion (Rwf7.4 trillion) is required for mitigation. Adaptation measures are aimed at helping communities and infrastructure withstand the effects of climate change, including floods, droughts and extreme weather. They include irrigation, water supply systems, climate-resilient agriculture, flood early-warning systems, terracing and other measures designed to reduce vulnerability to climate shocks. Mitigation measures, meanwhile, seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through interventions including electric mobility, renewable energy and forest conservation. Of the $7.07 billion needed for adaptation, about $1.62 billion (Rwf2.4 trillion) is classified as unconditional financing, meaning Rwanda expects to mobilise it through domestic resources. The remaining $5.45 billion (Rwf8.1 trillion) is conditional and will depend largely on international climate finance and other external support. For mitigation, about $520 million (Rwf772 billion) of the estimated $4.96 billion requirement is unconditional, while approximately $4.44 billion (Rwf6.6 trillion) depends on international financial and technical support. ALSO READ: Climate change could erode 7% of Rwanda’s GDP by 2050 Arakwiye said the growing cost of climate-related disasters illustrates the urgency of increasing investment in adaptation. “The evidence of climate change impacts is clear. In 2023 alone, floods and landslides claimed 131 lives and caused damages exceeding $415 million in northern, western and southern provinces of Rwanda,” she said. The $415 million in damages is equivalent to about Rwf616 billion at current exchange rates. Arakwiye said Rwanda’s latest climate action plan, known as NDC 3.0, puts adaptation at its core, with interventions across priority sectors including water resources, agriculture, land and forestry, urbanisation and human settlements, health, transport, mining, and water, sanitation and hygiene. Rwanda is also developing a dedicated loss and damage response mechanism aimed at helping the country access international financing for climate impacts that cannot be adequately addressed through adaptation measures alone. This includes seeking resources from international mechanisms such as the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage. Under NDC 3.0, Rwanda is targeting a reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions of up to 53 per cent below the business-as-usual scenario by 2035. Seven percentage points of that target are unconditional and expected to be achieved through domestic resources, while the remaining 46 percentage points depend on international financial and technical support. Closing the $7 billion financing gap will therefore be central to Rwanda’s ability to implement its climate commitments over the next decade, particularly as the country seeks to strengthen resilience to increasingly frequent and costly climate shocks.
