Rwanda has made major strides in transforming agriculture over the past two decades, but the next challenge is clear: produce more, attract bigger investments and connect farmers to larger markets.

That is the view of Jean Paul Ndagijimana, AGRA’s Country Director, who says the country has moved beyond the era when the priority was simply producing enough food and must now focus on productivity, value addition and exports.

In an exclusive interview with The New Times on the sidelines of the Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali last week, Ndagijimana reflected on nearly 20 years of AGRA’s work in Rwanda and outlined what he sees as the priorities for the next phase of agricultural transformation.

AGRA, founded in 2006 by the late Kofi Annan, began its work in Rwanda at a time when farmers faced major challenges accessing quality seeds, fertiliser and other inputs.

"We started by building capacity,” Ndagijimana said, noting that AGRA trained 50 scientists in plant breeding, crop protection and animal science to strengthen Rwanda’s ability to drive agricultural transformation.

The organisation later worked with the Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) to strengthen the seed system and supported the introduction of the Crop Intensification Programme around 2008.

At the time, farmers largely relied on traditional varieties and often saved part of their harvest as seed. Much of the country’s seed and fertiliser was imported, exposing farmers to supply disruptions.

The government subsequently pursued seed self-sufficiency, with AGRA supporting the Tera Imbuto Nziza programme to bring the private sector into seed production.

"Since 2016, we have moved from virtually having no private-sector seed companies to about 20 registered seed companies,” Ndagijimana said.

Rwanda, which was importing more than 3,000 metric tonnes of seed, is now self-sufficient in seed, while domestic fertiliser production has also begun.

But Ndagijimana says strengthening inputs was only one stage of the transformation.

"The journey has therefore been about sequencing interventions towards full agricultural transformation. Having strengthened inputs, our current focus is markets,” he said.

AGRA is now working with RICA, RAB and the National Agricultural Export Development Board (NAEB) to ensure farmers can produce surpluses that meet market standards and compete on price.

From food security to exports

Ndagijimana says Rwanda’s agricultural ambitions must now extend beyond food security.

"When AGRA started in 2006, the major goal was food security. Rwanda is now over 80 per cent food secure, so we are increasingly focusing on exportable crops,” he said.

AGRA has supported value chains including horticulture, avocado, chilli, French beans and poultry, while encouraging more processing and value addition.

Instead of exporting raw materials, the country is increasingly producing products such as chilli sauce, bread and processed coffee.

The bigger challenge, however, is increasing productivity without necessarily expanding the amount of land under cultivation.

"If we can move from two tonnes of maize per hectare to five or six tonnes, for example, we can significantly increase production without necessarily expanding land,” Ndagijimana said.

He argues that Rwanda should not settle for low productivity when higher yields are possible.

He cited livestock as another area with significant potential, pointing to high-yielding dairy breeds in countries such as Brazil.

"We should not be satisfied with low productivity when higher productivity is possible,” he said.

The potential markets are equally significant. Ndagijimana said demand for Rwandan chilli in China alone is far greater than what the country currently produces.

That is partly why AGRA is working with the Ministry of Agriculture on a 10-year Rwanda Food Innovation Partnership aimed at making the country a hub for agricultural innovation, investment and scaling.

"Even though Rwanda is a small country, we want to punch above our weight in agricultural exports, like Israel and the Netherlands have done,” he said.

Seeds driving higher yields

The impact of improved seeds can already be seen in some crops, particularly maize.

Ndagijimana said the average maize yield was about 600 kilogrammes per hectare in 2006, compared with potential yields of up to 9.8 metric tonnes per hectare today under good weather conditions.

"Imagine moving from 600 kilogrammes to 9,800 kilogrammes. That's almost 20 times,” he said.

Potato yields have also tripled since 2006, while improved cassava varieties can produce up to six times the yields farmers previously achieved and offer greater resistance to some diseases.

The gains, he said, are not only measured in tonnes but also in farmers’ incomes.

"When farmers produce more, they have a surplus to sell and earn more money,” he said.

Rwf30bn invested, more planned

AGRA has invested close to Rwf30 billion, or more than $30 million, directly in Rwanda since 2006.

The organisation now plans to invest $50 million over the next five years and has already raised half of that target.

AGRA is also coordinating what Ndagijimana calls "super aggregation” of about Rwf250 billion expected to be invested by the Mastercard Foundation in Rwanda’s agriculture sector.

But financing remains one of the biggest obstacles to agricultural growth.

For commercial banks, lending small amounts to farmers can be costly because of the operational expenses involved. Agriculture also carries risks linked to weather.

AGRA is therefore working with financial institutions and governments to develop digital solutions that can lower the cost of lending and improve farmers’ access to finance.

The organisation has partnered with Equity Bank to explore digital lending solutions, while Ecobank and other commercial banks are also exploring similar approaches.

AGRA is also working with Access to Finance Rwanda, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank to digitise SACCOs.

One challenge, however, is liquidity. SACCOs depend heavily on members’ savings, which are often insufficient to meet demand.

AGRA is therefore exploring ways for commercial banks to lend to SACCOs, which can then extend credit to farmers.

Focus on young women

Young people, particularly young women, are another major focus.

AGRA has developed Value for Her, which provides young women with training, mentoring and access to finance.

With support from the Mastercard Foundation, it also created Kataza through the Development Bank of Rwanda. The product provides young women with agriculture-related loans at less than 10 per cent interest.

AGRA is now piloting the product through SACCOs to take financing closer to rural communities.

"We want to see rural areas becoming places where young people go to build businesses and livelihoods, rather than everyone moving to Kigali,” Ndagijimana said.

Building a sustainable seed system

AGRA says it also wants to ensure the systems it helped establish can continue without relying on the organisation indefinitely.

It helped organise seed-sector players into the National Seed Association of Rwanda, an independent body responsible for organising, regulating and advocating for the sector.

The organisation has also supported seed inspection.

"When we started, the whole country had only eight inspectors,” Ndagijimana said. There are now 34 inspectors.

A new plant law approved by the Cabinet three months ago allows seed inspectors to charge fees, which AGRA believes could help create a more sustainable quality-control system.

The remaining challenge is securing ISTA accreditation, which would enable Rwandan seed to be traded beyond the country.

AGRA is also working to digitise agro-dealer registration and distribution, with the aim of bringing certified dealers closer to farmers.

Innovation and investment hub

The 10-year Rwanda Food Innovation Partnership brings together AGRA, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Innovation and the Rwanda Development Board.

Its ambition is to make Rwanda an innovation hub serving both the region and the wider world.

About three companies are already coming to Rwanda to test innovations before potentially scaling them across Africa.

The partnership also seeks to improve the regulatory environment and connect investors with promising businesses.

"We are looking at positioning Rwanda as a hub similar to Mauritius or Luxembourg,” Ndagijimana said.

Forum puts Rwanda in the spotlight

Ndagijimana said the Africa Food Systems Forum has also provided an opportunity to showcase Rwanda’s agricultural progress and attract investment.

The forum brought about 5,000 participants to Kigali, generating spending on hotels, food, transport and other services.

But he said the bigger benefit lies in the exchange of knowledge, investment opportunities and business deals.

More than 50 events and over 300 experts are participating in the forum, while markets are being opened for Rwandan products in China and other African countries.

Ndagijimana said one participant had already secured a market in Senegal for Rwandan honey.

He also disclosed that IFAD, Equity Bank Group and IFC were among institutions making significant commitments, although he did not disclose amounts.

"There are many commitments, but we now need to follow them through so that they benefit Rwanda and Africa,” he said.

Finance and markets top the agenda

For the coming years, Ndagijimana says AGRA has two main priorities: unlocking finance and strengthening markets.

Agriculture remains risky, he said, but tools such as irrigation and agricultural insurance can make investment safer.

"Agriculture is not safe, but it can be made safer,” he said.

He believes the biggest opportunity lies in combining higher productivity with reliable markets.

"We know we can produce, but can we consistently produce the quantity and quality that markets demand?” he asked.

His answer to the broader investment question is blunt: "If you actually want to be rich, get the land. The future billionaires will be farmers.”

No fear of improved seeds

Ndagijimana also defended the use of improved and genetically modified seeds, saying Rwanda should be guided by science and proper regulatory processes rather than fear.

"Whether you call them genetically modified seeds, modified seeds or use any other terminology, what matters is that they are safe, scientifically proven and have been successfully used in other countries,” he said.

He stressed that any seed or technology must pass through the appropriate scientific and regulatory approval processes before introduction.

"Once something has gone through that process and has been approved, I would tell Rwandans: trust the process and trust the institutions responsible for protecting us,” he said.