African countries need to invest more in early warning systems, reliable climate data and dedicated funds to cushion vulnerable communities against the growing impact of climate and other shocks, Jean Chrisostome Ngabitsinze, Group Director General of Africa Risk Capacity (ARC), has said.

Ngabitsinze, a former Minister of Agriculture and Animal Resources and Minister of Trade and Industry, said better preparation is critical if African countries are to protect smallholder farmers and other vulnerable groups from increasingly frequent climate-related shocks.

He was speaking on Friday, September 5, during the just-concluded Africa Food Systems Forum (AFSF) held in Kigali, where African leaders, policymakers, development partners, farmers and private-sector players gathered to discuss ways of transforming the continent's food systems.

"African countries should get prepared in terms of having better data, better early warning systems in order to predict what will happen in terms of shocks,” Ngabitsinze said.

He said while African countries have made progress in climate risk management, more investment is needed in tools that can predict potential disasters and give governments enough time to prepare.

"Otherwise, if there are no predictable tools, it is impossible to plan ahead, even for financing,” he said.

ARC, a specialised agency of the African Union, helps member states strengthen their capacity to prepare for and respond to extreme weather events and natural disasters through risk modelling, early warning systems and insurance mechanisms.

Ngabitsinze said governments should complement early warning systems with dedicated sovereign funds that can be quickly deployed when disasters strike.

"The second is finding sovereign finance, or funds as we call them. Countries might put in place the funds necessary to make sure that when there are shocks, there is support,” he said.

He said such mechanisms were particularly important for smallholder farmers, who often bear the greatest burden when droughts, floods, disease outbreaks and other shocks hit.

He argued that African governments need to work at two levels: improving their ability to anticipate risks and ensuring that financing is available when those risks materialise.

"It is at two levels: better planning and then finding the funds necessary to support the vulnerable people or the farmers affected by the shocks,” Ngabitsinze said.

Rwanda developing drought, disease models

Rwanda, which is among the early members of ARC, is currently working with the organisation to develop models for drought and disease outbreaks.

Ngabitsinze said Rwanda signed the ARC treaty in 2012 and is now developing two models that will help the country monitor and predict droughts as well as outbreaks and epidemics affecting humans and animals.

"The one is on drought, the second one is outbreaks and epidemics. This will help Rwanda to monitor very well, to predict what can happen when there is a drought or there is a disease in animals and humans,” he said.

The models will also provide a basis for Rwanda to plan insurance coverage and determine the premiums required to receive payouts when a shock occurs.

Ngabitsinze said the drought model was expected to be completed within two to three months.

He explained that the amount countries pay for insurance varies depending on their individual risk profiles and the models developed for them.

"The model informs you how much you put and what you get. So it is a model that communicates the real amount to be paid or the payouts to receive when there is a shock,” he said.

Over $240 million already spent

ARC has so far paid about $240 million in insurance payouts to member countries affected by disasters.

Ngabitsinze cited Burkina Faso, which recently received a $6 million payout following drought linked to the El Niño phenomenon, as an example of how the mechanism can provide governments with resources to respond to shocks.

Insurance cheaper than disaster response

Ngabitsinze urged African countries that have not yet taken up ARC's insurance mechanism to act before disasters occur.

He said governments should recognise that climate-related shocks are no longer isolated or unexpected events, making preparation and risk financing increasingly important.

"The countries that have not yet signed the policy of insurance have to know that climate change shocks are real. So it is better to do it as soon as possible because when there is a shock, the cost of intervening is more than the cost of having insurance,” he said.

Rwanda already has an agricultural insurance scheme that has been operating for more than five years, but Ngabitsinze said ARC's approach was different because it uses parametric insurance.

Unlike traditional insurance, where losses are assessed after an event, parametric insurance relies on predetermined indicators and models to trigger payouts when specified thresholds are reached.

"Our model is unique because our model is parametric insurance, meaning that we predict before the shock,” he said.

He said the system could allow countries to receive payouts within weeks of a shock occurring.

"As we can see it before it happens, you can pay within two to three weeks when the shock is there,” he said.

Build local climate expertise

Aimable Gahigi, Director General of the Rwanda Meteorology Agency, said Rwanda had invested in observation equipment and systems to strengthen national forecasting while allowing the country to exchange meteorological information with regional and global institutions.

He said sustainability also depended on countries developing their own technical capacity to operate and maintain climate-related systems.

He urged African countries to invest in local technicians and climate experts capable of implementing, monitoring and controlling new technologies.

Such capacity, he said, would help countries avoid dependence on external expertise and ensure that investments in climate information systems deliver long-term benefits.

Climate forecasting a livelihood issue

Solange Uwituze, Minister of State in the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources, said climate forecasting should be treated as more than a technical exercise because it directly affects livelihoods, food security and economies.

"Climate forecasting is not an ordinary technical job, rather it is a livelihood issue and an economic issue and moral issue,” she said.

Uwituze said Africa needed to shift from responding to disasters after they occur to anticipating risks and preparing communities before they strike.

"The future of a resilient Africa lies in the ability to anticipate, prepare and innovate, and to stop being reactive to shocks that are costly by the time they are visible,” she said.

African countries grapple with increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, including prolonged droughts, floods and other climate-related disruptions that threaten agricultural production and the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers.

Experts urge that strengthening early warning systems and putting financing mechanisms in place before disasters occur will be central to making Africa's food systems more resilient.