A few years ago, this telecommunications company was grappling with a combination of macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds. Foreign exchange pressures and changes to mobile termination rate (MTR) regulations had effectively reversed years of profitability. The years 2023 and 2024 were particularly difficult. Operating in an increasingly competitive environment, the company saw its margins steadily erode. You have probably guessed it already. The company is MTN Rwandacell Plc. In 2023, MTN Rwanda was operating in an increasingly challenging macroeconomic environment. The Rwandan franc recorded its sharpest depreciation on record, losing 18.05 per cent of its value against the US dollar. The weaker currency significantly increased finance costs, rising by 15.8 per cent to Rwf36.5 billion. On top of this, the termination rates payable between Mobile Network Operators (MTR) were zero rated for an intended one-year period, but remained in place for two years, coinciding with a compression in margins. Although the economy showed signs of stability in 2024, foreign exchange pressures remained elevated. The franc depreciated by a further 9.42 per cent against the dollar, increasing the cost of servicing MTN's foreign obligations. The company said at the time that it was paying international network vendors such as Huawei and Ericsson in US dollars, making exchange rate movements particularly costly. These pressures resulted in consecutive years of earnings decline. In 2023, net profit fell 28.9 per cent to Rwf11.4 billion despite an 11 per cent increase in service revenue to Rwf246.5 billion and a 6.5 per cent growth in its subscriber base. Even before that, in 2022, the company had registered a 12.8 per cent decline in PAT. In 2024, net profit declined again by 194.1 per cent to Rwf5.5 billion due to lower revenue growth and higher operating costs. But that story appears to be changing. The evolution The outlook for Rwanda's largest mobile network operator looks markedly different from what investors witnessed over the previous two years. Whether this reflects a more favourable operating environment, better execution by management, or a combination of both is worth examining. In 2025, it was the first time in three years that the company returned to profitability. MTN Rwanda last experienced a honeymoon-kind of performance in 2021 when net earnings improved 10.9 per cent to Rwf22.4 billion. Last year, the firm saw its top and bottom lines return to those years. Profit after tax grew 300.6 per cent to Rwf10.8 billion, perhaps one of the highest year-on-year growth on record. This was driven by a 14.7 per cent (Rwf295.7 billion) increase in service revenue. There are some very telling signals in the 2025 financials, especially around expenses, finance costs, as well as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) - metrics that the company had struggled with. Expenses grew slightly by 12.2 per cent, but lower than revenue (14 per cent). Expense ratio, which measures efficiency, dropped to 64.2 per cent in 2025 compared to 65.2 per cent in 2024. That’s a positive sign. On the other hand, the EBITDA margin, which also measures operational efficiency, improved 35.8 per cent in 2025 compared to the margin of 34.8 per cent in 2024. For many mobile network operators, an EBITDA margin of 30-35 per cent is a decent industry performance. Perhaps one would want to believe that this efficiency was partly a result of the restoration of MTRs in August last year. The turnaround One could argue that MTN Rwanda’s turnaround resulted from a combination of a more favourable operating environment, stronger commercial execution and tighter cost control. In the first quarter of 2024, as macroeconomic conditions began to ease, MTN launched Connect Rwanda 2.0 to improve smartphone affordability and accessibility, including throughIkosora, a 4G-enabled smartphone retailing at Rwf20,000. The results were visible in the numbers. Smartphones connected to MTN’s network rose sharply, smartphone penetration improved, and active data subscribers continued to grow, supporting stronger data usage. Alongside investment in network quality and capacity, these initiatives helped improve the customer experience and supported MTN Rwandacell’s recovery in profitability. Prospects for 2026 The first half of this year already shows that MTN is on track to achieve better performance. According to the latest financial statements, net profit is up 191.2 per cent to Rwf17.2 billion supported by a higher EBITDA and strong topline growth. EBITDA advanced 30.4 per cent to Rwf70.5 billion as service revenue rose 21.9 per cent to Rwf167.5 billion, buoyed by double-digit growth in the data and fintech businesses and steady subscriber growth. Data revenue rose 14.3 per cent year-on-year to Rwf26.6 billion, underpinned by a 63.6 per cent increase in data traffic, while the data subscriber base expanded 14.5 per cent to 2.7 million. Mobile money revenue grew 31.3 per cent to Rwf90 billion, supported by an 11.4 per cent increase in active subscribers 6.4 million. In 2024, the then chief financial officer told me in an exclusive interview that improving efficiency and streamlining operations would be the company’s top priority. I told him that I would hold the company accountable. Dare I say those were not empty promises. Still, corporate performance is difficult to predict in an operating environment shaped by domestic, regional and global macroeconomic conditions. For now, however, MTN Rwanda appears to be moving in the right direction. The writer is a Senior Business Editor at The New Times.
