Africa is once again at the centre of a global resource race. As the world shifts to clean energy, demand for critical energy transition minerals is surging, and Africa holds a significant share of them. For generations, the continent has supplied the world with raw and semi-finished commodities while receiving a disproportionately small share of the massive wealth created from the sector. But endowment is neither a strategy nor a destiny. Unless the continent changes course, this new boom risks repeating an old narrative of exporting raw materials while importing prosperity, with countries and mining communities left with degraded landscapes, limited services, a few lasting economic opportunities and very little to show from the harnessing of their mineral resource wealth. As Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders gather in Durban for the 46th Ordinary Summit at a moment when the region’s own agenda places industrialisation, infrastructure and critical minerals transformation at the centre of its future, there is a window of opportunity for concerted action to move beyond being a source of wealth for other economies. Furthermore, SADC can offer lessons for the rest of the Continent on how extraordinary mineral endowment can drive value addition, regional integration and inclusive development. The continent holds about 30% of the global reserves of critical energy transition minerals including cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel, platinum group metals and rare earth elements. Africa produces more than 77% of the world’s cobalt, 21% of natural graphite, 1% of lithium, 65% of manganese, 5.6% of nickel and 83% of platinum group metals. SADC sits at the heart of this endowment. From the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s dominance in cobalt to Zimbabwe’s lithium, South Africa’s platinum and manganese, and Zambia’s copper, the region is indispensable to global supply chains. The International Energy Agency projects that demand for these minerals could more than triple by 2030 under net-zero scenarios. Major economies are already repositioning supply chains in the name of energy security. This is a narrow window of opportunity. History teaches us that resource wealth alone is not a guarantee for deep transformation. The SADC region is a testing ground for Africa’s strategic resolve to reshape its future through deliberate choices, avoiding dependency and driving transformation. For instance, minerals contribute around 10 per cent of SADC’s GDP, 25 per cent of exports, and 20 per cent of government revenues. However, the sector accounts for only 7 per cent of direct employment, reflecting the need to move into mineral-based industrialisation and value-addition, which hold greater job-creating multipliers. The region has an opportunity to correct this imbalance through moving decisively into processing, manufacturing, and technology development, in order to move from the bottom of the value chain. Opportunities and challenges Critical Energy Transition Minerals are a pathway to industrialisation, regional integration and technological learning for the SADC region. Beyond dependence on raw material exports, critical energy transition minerals create sustainable jobs for women and young people, stimulate local enterprise, generate optimal public revenues and strengthen Africa’s position in the global green economy. A Bloomberg-NEF study commissioned by the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and partners in 2021 found that building a 10,000-tonne battery precursor plant in the Democratic Republic of the Congo could cost about $39 million, roughly three times less than in the United States, while also reducing emissions compared with existing supply chains routed through China. This is precisely the kind of opportunity Africa must seize: not simply exporting ore, but producing higher-value goods, developing technical capabilities and skills and retaining more value in the continent. To tap the wide opportunities that this sector presents, the SADC region needs to overcome a number of structural challenges. Furthermore, current policy disconnect makes it difficult for the region to work together and attract investment as a trading bloc. Besides, skills gaps limit the ability to move into higher-value activities. Left unaddressed, these constraints will ensure that others continue to capture the gains. Recommendations A fundamental shift in strategy is needed on the exploration, mining, value addition and marketing of the critical minerals in the SADC region. This shift requires strategic focus and investment in four priorities: First, SADC must invest seriously in geological knowledge. Data is power in extractive industries. Without accurate information on resource quantity and quality, countries negotiate critical energy transition minerals investments from weakness and leave value on the table. Second, the region must act as a bloc and develop a minerals compact aligned with continental frameworks such as the Africa Mining Vision, the SADC Regional Mining Vision, the Africa Green Minerals Strategy and the African Continental Free Trade Area. Such a compact should harmonise royalty regimes, investment rules, local-content requirements, and skills frameworks and support the development of cross-border value chains. In addition, policies and strategies that promote local value addition, industrialisation, and value chains development should be introduced and enforced. For example, the recent ban on the export of unprocessed lithium in Zimbabwe and unprocessed cobalt in the DRC has the potential to encourage and promote local value addition. Third, the region must power mineral processing with clean, reliable and affordable energy. SADC’s solar, hydro and other renewable resources can become a competitive advantage if they are linked to beneficiation, value addition, refining, recycling and manufacturing. Low-carbon production is not only an environmental imperative. It is increasingly a market requirement. The region must craft and implement smart policies that promote local value addition at source, marketing of critical minerals and investment in technology. Furthermore, deliberate efforts should be made to build the skills required for a modern mineral-based industrial economy. Fourth, community benefit agreements must become the norm, not the exception. Equity participation, local procurement, local content, skills development, environmental bonds and transparent revenue-sharing mechanisms can help ensure that mining benefits outlast the mines themselves. Communities should not be asked to carry the costs of extraction while others capture the returns. ECA is working with member states to accompany and support this shift: strengthening regional value chains, improving geological mapping, attracting responsible investment, and addressing the high cost of capital that constrains African projects. The SADC region has what it takes for a just and equitable energy transition that contributes to both global climate goals and domestic development. Anything less would replicate past inequities under a new banner. As leaders meet in Durban, the real test is whether SADC will act with shared purpose and strategic urgency. This summit should mark a turning point towards structural change that creates jobs, capabilities and prosperity across Southern Africa. SADC must seize this moment: not only to supply the world’s energy transition, but to power its own economic and social transformation. The writer is the Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).
