Rwanda is projected to remain among Africa’s growing economies over the next three years, supported by strong agricultural performance, rising export earnings and continued investment in key productive sectors, according to the World Bank. The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report, projects the country's economy to grow by 7.2 per cent in 2026, following an estimated expansion of 9.4 per cent in 2025. Growth is expected to rise to 7.6 per cent in 2027 before easing slightly to 7.3 per cent in 2029. ALSO READ: Rwanda secures $250m IMF funding to deal with external shocks The projections place Rwanda among the region’s strongest performers at a time when global growth is expected to remain subdued, weighed down by weak investment, slowing trade and tightening financial conditions in many developing economies. The World Bank noted that low-income countries continue to face uneven recovery paths, with gains in income per capita expected to be modest and, in many cases, insufficient to drive rapid poverty reduction. It adds that growth in this group is projected to average 5.4 per cent in 2026, a downgrade of 0.3 percentage points from earlier forecasts, largely reflecting the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. The conflict has offset gains from domestic demand and commodity exports in several economies. ALSO READ: IMF cuts Rwanda’s growth forecast to 6.8% amid Middle East conflict Growth is expected to edge up to an average of 5.5 per cent in 2027-2028 as domestic drivers regain momentum, although the bank warns that the recovery will remain fragile in low-income countries. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including a prolonged escalation of geopolitical tensions, which could push up global energy and fertiliser prices and worsen food insecurity. The report also highlights potential spillovers from disease outbreaks, tighter global financial conditions, weaker global activity, climate-related shocks and a slower energy transition. According to the World Bank, such shocks would hit fragile and conflict-affected economies hardest, where limited fiscal buffers and declining donor support reduce capacity to respond. Despite these challenges, low-income countries recorded firmer growth of 5 per cent in 2025, up from 3.7 per cent in 2024, supported by easing conflict in some regions, improved agricultural output and moderating inflation. In Eastern Africa, recovery from earlier drought conditions boosted agricultural production, easing food inflation and supporting household consumption. Commodity-exporting economies also benefited from stronger prices for coffee, gold and other metals. Rwanda was among the region’s standout performers, with growth rebounding to 9.4 per cent in 2025, the highest among low-income countries, driven by strong investment, improved industrial output, robust agriculture and increased export earnings supported by favourable coffee prices. “Disinflation continued across low-income countries at the start of 2026, with median headline inflation easing to 3.5 per cent in March, down from 6.1 per cent in 2025. The decline was largely driven by lower food prices, supported by strong agricultural harvests in several economies,” the report noted. As global uncertainty persists, the World Bank says sustaining momentum in low-income countries will depend on deeper structural reforms, improved productivity, stronger trade integration and continued investment in climate-resilient agriculture, skills development, export diversification and private sector growth. The report cautions that maintaining resilience will require balancing robust domestic performance with growing exposure to external shocks in the global economy for Rwanda.
