As the minister of finance prepares to table the Budget Framework Paper (BFP) on Monday, May 11, for the 2026/2027 fiscal year, experts have identified key sectors they say should be prioritised as Rwanda sets its next national spending agenda. The BFP is a medium-term document that sets the country’s economic priorities and guides government spending and revenue plans for the next budget cycle. Last year, the government projected spending of about Rwf7 trillion in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, up from more than Rwf5.8 trillion in 2024/2025. ALSO READ: Govt revises down 2025/2026 fiscal budget by Rwf80bn The increase was driven by major strategic investments, including the construction of the new international airport in Bugesera District, the expansion of RwandAir, and pension reforms. ALSO READ: More 100 MW to be generated from Lake Kivu methane - RDB In February, the budget was revised downward by Rwf80.4 billion following improved financial management and a shift toward more affordable financing for major national projects. ALSO READ: How Rwanda is navigating the US–Iran war fallout The upcoming budget discussions are taking place against a backdrop of fluctuating fuel prices, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions affecting international trade and energy markets. Agriculture Angello Musinguzi, an economist and Tax and Regulatory Partner at Garnet Partners Ltd, said Rwanda’s upcoming budget should prioritise sectors capable of creating jobs and boosting exports. Musinguzi said agriculture and agro-processing should receive a significant share of the budget, noting that agriculture remains central to household livelihoods and food security. “Agriculture is now being challenged by climate shocks, and because of that, the government needs to invest more in areas such as fertilisers, irrigation, improved seeds, post-harvest handling, and storage infrastructure,” he said. Energy and industrialisation Musinguzi identified affordable and reliable energy as another key priority area, saying electricity is essential for industrialisation and manufacturing growth. “Without affordable electricity, industries and factories cannot grow, yet these are important for job creation,” he said. Education, healthcare and innovation He further called for increased investment in education and skills development, especially for young people. “Youth need practical education and skills so they can compete both regionally and globally. This is important for improving livelihoods and addressing unemployment,” he said. Musinguzi also noted the need to strengthen district hospitals, medical equipment, and pharmaceutical supply systems, while expanding nutrition programmes aimed at tackling malnutrition, particularly in rural communities. He added that Rwanda should continue investing in ICT and innovation to strengthen its ambition of becoming a regional technology hub. “There should be funds allocated to fintech, innovation, and incubation centres for start-ups, especially for young people,” he said. Infrastructure, tourism and climate resilience According to Musinguzi, infrastructure and transport remain important sectors that can support trade, tourism, and investment, including electric mobility initiatives and strategic projects such as Bugesera International Airport. He said tourism should also remain a priority, as it continues to generate foreign exchange earnings through hospitality, sports tourism, and aviation expansion. Musinguzi additionally stressed the importance of climate resilience and water management, warning that climate change poses long-term risks to agriculture and economic stability. “The government should start thinking more about irrigation, flood control, water harvesting, reforestation, and green energy. Without these investments, even agriculture can suffer in the future,” he said. Inflation management Economic analyst Straton Habyalimana said the budget should focus on protecting the economy from external shocks, particularly rising global fuel prices and inflationary pressures. According to Habyalimana, the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis significantly disrupted global oil markets, increasing pressure on fuel-importing countries such as Rwanda. “To protect consumers from skyrocketing pump prices, the government may need targeted and time-bound fuel subsidies or temporary fuel tax adjustments,” he said. “Reducing reliance on imported fuel is critical if Rwanda wants to shield itself from global fossil fuel volatility.” With inflation rising due to energy shocks, the budget should strengthen social protection programmes such as the Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP) to cushion vulnerable households from rising living costs, he said. Revenue mobilisation and fiscal sustainability Habyalimana called for stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and improved tax administration systems to help government finance development sustainably as global development financing conditions tighten. He added: “As official development assistance conditions tighten globally, the government must focus on improving domestic tax revenue collection to finance development sustainably. “Implementing medium-term revenue strategies and improving forecasting mechanisms can help government improve fiscal planning and revenue collection.”
