One of the consequences of the Middle East conflict has been the disruption of global trade, affecting imports and exports in many countries, including Rwanda. As pressure mounts on some of Rwanda’s key markets, China is emerging as a potential alternative destination for the country’s exports. ALSO READ: PM: Rwanda 'not rushing into stringent measures' amid Middle East war Pacifique Nshimiyimana, the Chairperson of the Avocado Society of Rwanda, said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has affected Rwanda’s avocado exports, with many farmers struggling to find markets for their premium produce. The challenge extends beyond exports. The local market has also been impacted by rising transport costs, which have reduced the ability of local processors—previously an important alternative market—to offer competitive prices. “This situation is further worsened by declining demand, as EU and UK markets are experiencing a surge in avocado supplies from other major exporters such as South Africa and Kenya, creating additional pressure across the entire value chain,” he noted. The Chinese market presents an opportunity for Rwandan avocado farmers, he said, particularly as the country seeks to expand and diversify its export destinations. Nshimiyimana explained that China’s large population and growing demand for healthy food products make it a highly promising market capable of absorbing substantial production volumes. “This aligns well with Rwanda’s projected increase in avocado output, as many of our productive trees are expected to at least double in number and yield within the next two years,” he said. Access to the Chinese market is a key component of the avocado commercialisation strategy. He commended the government and the National Agriculture Export Development Board (NAEB) for opening up this opportunity, saying it will help increase farmers’ incomes and strengthen the avocado sector. Nshimiyimana added that exporters need to prioritise building strong, long-term partnerships with farmers to ensure a consistent and reliable supply of high-quality avocados. The Avocado Society of Rwanda is working to harmonise a contract farming model that establishes legally binding relationships between farmers and exporting companies. This framework is intended to be recognised by local financial institutions, including banks and microfinance institutions, thereby improving access to finance, he added. “Such investment is essential to support quality assurance systems and the adoption of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP), which are critical requirements for accessing and competing in high-standard markets like China.” Robert Rukundo, the Chairperson of the Horticulture Exporters Association of Rwanda, noted that in key markets such as the UAE, the UK, and the EU, exporters are not receiving higher prices for their products despite rising costs. The situation has been more challenging in the Middle East where tensions around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping routes. This has reduced transport options, making exports more expensive, less predictable, and harder to deliver. Rukundo said China represents a strategic opportunity for Rwanda, given its large and stable market. The zero-tariff policy for African countries, including Rwanda, further enhances its attractiveness. However, he noted, exporters still face logistical challenges, including limited cargo space, high air freight costs, and constrained access to efficient sea freight routes. Despite these hurdles, he said the market offers strong potential for high returns if structural challenges are addressed. “Rwanda needs to invest in better market research to understand demand and the requirements for accessing different markets. Exports should be made less risky through supportive policies and incentives, such as promotional freight rates. Improving infrastructure—especially cold chain systems and logistics—will be critical to maintaining product quality and competitiveness in distant markets.” Grace Mbabazi, the Managing Director of M&M Sozo Ltd, a local honey export company that has been exporting to China for the past two years, said Rwanda and China enjoy a strong working relationship that has facilitated trade between the two countries. She noted that the 2024 agreement allowing Rwanda to export honey to China marked an important step forward. The deal is expected to expand trade, increase rural incomes, and open access to a large international market, while strengthening agricultural cooperation between the two countries. Mbabazi added that Rwandan and Chinese businesspeople regularly meet in Rwanda to discuss opportunities, address challenges, and support aspiring exporters. “The advantage we have as Rwandans is that the government supports us in accessing better export services. Whenever we face challenges during the export process, whether related to cold chain logistics or other issues, we receive assistance,” she said.
