...African governments should prepare their citizens for hard times ahead The US-Israel war on Iran is causing anxiety and untold suffering across the world. Disruptions to cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime channel handling 20–30% of global oil—have triggered severe energy supply shocks, skyrocketing fuel and gas prices, and major supply chain disruptions worldwide. ALSO READ: PM: Rwanda 'not rushing into stringent measures' amid Middle East war The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that global supply chains may be on the brink of their most severe disruption since COVID-19 and the onset of the full-scale Ukraine war in 2022. Carl Skau, Deputy Executive Director of WFP, told CNN that shipping costs have risen sharply. ALSO READ: How could the US-Israel war on Iran affect Rwanda? According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), nearly two dozen vessels have been attacked in the region since the start of the war, making shipping companies increasingly reluctant to operate there. ALSO READ: Transport fares revised with new fuel prices Oil-exporting Gulf countries have invoked “force majeure” clauses on oil and gas shipment contracts. The term force majeure, derived from French civil law, refers to unforeseen external events that prevent parties from fulfilling contractual obligations. ALSO READ: Economists warn of oil shock, urge spending cuts The Strait of Hormuz, which handled roughly 140 vessels per day before the war, has reportedly dropped to just a handful—mainly from Iran-friendly countries—within a month of the conflict. US naval power has so far failed to fully secure the passage. How is Africa being impacted? Several African governments are already rolling out emergency measures to conserve fuel for critical operations. According to Bloomberg, many countries are scrambling for alternative supplies, including sourcing refined products from the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, after long relying on refineries in the Persian Gulf. Ironically, some of this refined fuel originates from crude oil exported from Africa itself. Even oil-producing African countries remain dependent on imported refined fuel. Aliko Dangote, the Nigerian billionaire behind the Dangote refinery, has warned that the crisis is not “about pricing—it is about availability.” “I think the situation will continue for a while,” he said. Is it time for Africa to have “strategic conversations”? In a widely shared video on social media, Zimbabwean philosopher Joshua Maponga questioned why African countries are not trading more with each other. “So here we are in Zimbabwe, buying our oil from Iraq and Russia—but right across the Zambezi River, in Angola, there is oil,” he lamented. He argued that what is missing is the willingness of African leaders to sit down and engage in meaningful strategic dialogue. This brings to mind a book I read years ago, Strategic Conversations by Chris Voss and Tao Zhang. Its central message is simple but powerful: In life, the most crucial moments often hinge on one thing—communication. Whether negotiating a deal, resolving conflict, or building partnerships, the way we converse can determine success or failure. This crisis should serve as a wake-up call for African leaders to initiate serious, coordinated discussions on how to better utilize the continent’s own resources for the benefit of its people. Bracing for the impact As long as the Iran war continues, Africa must brace for significant economic fallout: soaring fuel and gas prices, fertilizer shortages that could trigger food insecurity, reduced financial inflows from exports and investments, and declining remittances from African workers in the Gulf region. Indeed, hard times lie ahead. The writer is a keen observer of global affairs.
