The Governor of the National Bank of Rwanda Soraya Hakuziyaremye has said that monetary policy decisions have successfully contained inflation, following elevated levels recorded in 2022 and 2023.. However, she cautioned that inflationary pressures could edge up in the near term, driven largely by rising global energy costs. “Inflation has moderated significantly thanks to sustained monetary policy measures and government interventions over the past few years. However, increases in fuel, solid fuels, and electricity prices in the latter part of 2025 have pushed headline inflation slightly above our target range,” she said while presenting the Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Statement (MPFSS) on March 19. In the fourth quarter of 2022, headline inflation reached 21.1 percent. By the end of 2023 it had come down to 8.9 per cent. It stood at 7.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year. In February 2026, headline inflation increased to 9.2 percent. ALSO READ: How will central bank’s rate hike tame inflation? According to the governor, energy costs have played a major role in this, as limited supply and rising demand pushed fuel and charcoal prices higher. Adjustments in electricity tariffs also added to the cost of living, putting further pressure on households and businesses. In addition, agricultural production during Season A was moderate due to rainfall patterns, which affected food prices and contributed to overall inflationary pressures. Hakuziyaremye also noted that higher energy costs indirectly affected prices in hotels, restaurants, and other sectors, contributing to inflationary pressures. “If you compare the second half of 2025 to the second half of 2024, then coal energy generation increased. There was also an increase in prices, especially in hotels and restaurants,” she noted. ALSO READ: What is behind the rise in inflation? Global risks, outlook The governor emphasised that global factors, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, could impact fuel prices and domestic inflation in 2026. BNR expects headline inflation to remain slightly above 8 per cent in the short term but gradually return to the target range of 2–8 per cent by the end of 2026. “There are still pressures on inflation, especially domestic inflation for the first half of 2026. We will see an easing of the inflation path for the second half of 2026.” ALSO READ: How significant is Strait of Hormuz in US, Israel-Iran conflict She also reassured that the central bank is prepared to act against risks from global commodity markets, supply chain disruptions, and energy price volatility. However, she added that with the uncertainties of global commodity markets, supply chain disruptions because of the suspension of flows on the Strait of Hormuz there are still uncertainties of how commodity prices will evolve after 2026.
