Analysts and observers of the inter-Congolese dialogue between the government and armed groups have said the side-lining of the M23 rebel group could undermine any efforts to bring peace to eastern DR Congo. The third round of the inter-Congolese dialogue, facilitated by the East African Community (EAC) concluded on Tuesday, December 6 in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, but the M23 was not represented. ALSO READ: Banyamulenge delegation pulls out of DR Congo talks With Uhuru Kenyatta as the facilitator, the EAC-led Nairobi process seeks to restore peace in the east of DR Congo. A statement by the EAC said the Congolese government and the armed groups agreed to continue the cessation of hostilities and the disarmament and demobilisation process, among other things. Some believe the Nairobi talks were occasioned by the offensive of the M23 rebels on the Congolese armed forces FARDC. Out of more than 120 armed groups operating in eastern DR Congo, reports say between 40 and 60 of them were represented in Nairobi. “If the Nairobi peace process could be the beginning of something, it would be interesting. But I don’t expect a lot from it, because M23, the main group that is mentioned at every meeting of heads of states, was not represented in Nairobi,” said Albert Rudatsimburwa, an analyst of Great Lakes politics. “I have learnt that even some of the groups in Nairobi were also asking why the M23 was not part of the discussions. The DR Congo government is trying to turn its back on the real problem. The M23 is a reality and they have to solve it. So long as they don’t do that, Nairobi talks will not bring peace to the eastern Congo.” For Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, a researcher and political scientist, the M23 is too big a player to be isolated from the talks if they are meant to end the decades-long insecurity in DR Congo. “It’s surprising that the one rebel group that everyone is talking about, that is the M23, was not invited,” Golooba-Mutebi said. “If there is any group that should have been invited to that process, it is M23. But they selected other groups, some of which have now forged alliances with the Congolese army to fight M23. I don’t see how that is going to solve the problem of instability in Congo frankly.” ALSO READ: Misguided approach to solving Congolese problems only worsens the situation - Biruta He added that the major issue causing instability in the DRC is the FDLR, a militia founded by people who are responsible for the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda. Instead, Kinshasa and the international community prefer to ignore the FDLR, which is not only one of the factors that gave rise to the M23 rebellion, but also a security threat to Rwanda, Golooba-Mutebi said. The Congolese government accuses Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebels who are fighting the FARDC in North Kivu province – allegations Kigali has dismissed. “I think that the Congo government believes that people out there are going to buy into this story that the M23 is a proxy of Rwanda. But only people who are ignorant and haven’t followed the history of M23 and its predecessors – the CNDP and so on – would believe that,” he said. ALSO READ: Only Congolese people can bring peace to DR Congo – Kenyatta In May, Kinshasa labelled the M23 as a terrorist movement, hence excluding them for the Nairobi process. In the lead-up to the just-concluded talks, the M23 were asked to withdraw from all its occupied territory as a prerequisite for talks – a concession they were not willing to make. “In conflict mediation you don’t mediate people; you mediate grievances,” said Dr. Lonzen Rugira, a researcher. “The parties to the conflict have to present their grievances to the mediator. Then, with the grievances, the mediator engages each side with a view of making concessions to the other. This is what is missing in the Nairobi process. The refusal of the Nairobi process to include the M23 is the reason the outcome cannot be successful,” Rugira said.
