As African leaders prepare to meet in Addis Ababa for the 39th Ordinary Session of the African Union Summit from February 14-15, observers say the crisis in eastern DR Congo may be among issues to be discussed as part of its long-term goal of silencing the guns on the continent. Whether the continental forum and the appointed AU facilitators can influence the situation on the ground and persuade the Congolese government to respect the ceasefire remains to be seen. ALSO READ: DR Congo must own up, stop blaming Rwanda - Kagame The summit comes at a time the AU-led facilitation has intensifies, following the recent high-level meetings and coordination between the African-led efforts and the Doha peace process between the Congolese government and the AFC/M23 rebels. Following a high-level meeting in Lomé, Togo, on January 17, with the country's leader Faure Gnassingbe the AU-appointed facilitators began a regional tour to advance peace efforts in eastern DR Congo. The delegation led by Gnassingbe included former presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Sahle-Work Zewde, Mokgweetsi Masisi, and Catherine Samba-Panza. The team visited DR Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda, engaging directly with regional leaders and AFC/M23 representatives to assess progress and next steps. ALSO READ: Kagame discusses DR Congo security with Togo president, AU facilitators Speaking to The New Times, AFC/M23 spokesperson Oscar Balinda said the consultations were in line with ongoing peace efforts. “The African mediation is part of the Doha peace process, and it is their mandate to consult us as well during such processes of engaging concerned parties,” he said. Balinda explained that discussions focused on accelerating progress under the Doha track. which has been harmonised with the African-led efforts. “They reached out to us to assess the next steps in Doha, focusing on how to accelerate the mediation process by ensuring the swift implementation of agreements already signed and expediting the conclusion of the remaining protocols in the peace process,” he added. The AU mediation efforts also complements the Washington process between Kigali and Kinshasa, which focuses on security issues, including the presence of the Kinshasa-backed FDLR militia. The AU monitors compliance, receives complaints, and helps resolve disputes. Meanwhile, the Doha talks between the AFC/M23 and the Congolese government address the root causes of the conflict, including governance gaps, political exclusion, and ethnic tensions, particularly affecting Tutsi communities. A ceasefire agreement under Doha established a Verification Mechanism, with AU, Qatari, and US as observers, while the ICGLR monitors compliance and investigates violations with support from MONUSCO. On February 2, both sides agreed to deploy monitoring teams under AU coordination to implement existing protocols and negotiate remaining ones. ALSO READ: AFC/M23 leader Corneille Nangaa states four reasons why his movement is fighting Tshisekedi govt For AFC/M23, the key test of African-led mediation lies in enforcement rather than new commitments. Balinda said the movement expects facilitators to confront what it sees as a lack of political will on the government side to implement agreements. “We all know that there has been a lack of political will from the Congolese government, which is necessary for the Doha mediation to move faster and deliver results,” he said. He added that the movement is waiting to see accountability mechanisms strengthened. “We are holding on to the second protocol on ceasefire implementation. The details are clear, and we expect all parties included in the mandate to work towards silencing the guns in eastern DR Congo,” Balinda said. ALSO READ: Nangaa rejects Tshisekedi's attempt at peace talks in Luanda Rwanda has raised similar concerns. Speaking during the 20th Umushyikirano Council on February 6, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Olivier Nduhungirehe pointed to deliberate distortions around the crisis. He stressed that the main obstacle is not the absence of agreements. “The biggest problem is not the agreements signed. The real problem is the lack of political will to implement them,” Nduhungirehe said, adding that Kigali wants the mediation to remain firmly African-led and focused on enforcing both the Washington and Doha agreements. Fatuma Ndangiza, a member of the East African Legislative Assembly, said she expects AU leaders to confront this issue directly. “The role of the Togolese President and AU facilitators in bringing critical challenges to the attention of Heads of State is essential,” she said, According to Ndangiza, the AU summit should prioritise concrete outcomes. “I expect the mediation team to present action-oriented recommendations for adoption. There should be urgency, because there are no shortcuts to peace, and the responsibility lies with the Congolese leadership,” she said. Legal expert and analyst Alphonse Mulefu noted that AU facilitators are formally recognised under both the Washington and Doha processes, giving them leverage. “That recognition puts them in a position to influence outcomes and persuade parties to resolve the conflict peacefully,” he said. However, Mulefu expressed doubts about the continental resolve. “Africa has been slow in finding solutions, while the Congolese government has outsourced the conflict to external actors. Lasting peace requires a shared understanding of root causes and willingness to address governance failures,” he said. African Union is the most suitable organisation to handle this conflict, Mulefu said. “But I doubt their willingness and ability to push the parties to a decision that addresses the real internal challenges especially those of governance in the DR Congo. Ability is preceded by willingness,” he said. Jean Baptiste Gasominari, another analyst, was more sceptical about what the AU summit might deliver. He argued that the anticipated rotation of AU chairmanship to Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye could complicate matters, as his troops are fighting alongside the Congolese government coaltion. The Summit of Heads of States will elect Ndayishimiye as AU chairperson who is part of the DR Congo problem as a warring party, he said. This move won’t help much in the eastern DR Congo issues, it will make the matter worse. ALSO READ: How Burundian troops in South Kivu sparked a distinct humanitarian crisis amid DR Congo’s wider war Gasominari linked his concerns to recent criticism of the AU Commission's reaction, to the AFC/M23 attack on Kisangani military drone command centre, which had been used by the government coaltion to launch airstrikes on rebel positions and civilian villages. “The Commission showed bias by condemning the attack on the drone command at Kisangani airport and labelling it terrorism,” Gasominari said of the AU statement that was seen as selective. ALSO READ: AFC/M23 draws red line over air strikes out of Kisangani airport killing civilians Independent researcher Frederick Golooba Mutebi echoed concerns about the AU's position. “It was surprising to see the AU rush to condemn this incident, while remaining silent when the Congolese government and its allies bombard civilian targets or M23 positions,” he said. Mutebi questioned whether the statement unintentionally framed AFC/M23 as a terrorist group and warned that such actions could undermine confidence in mediation. “When you condemn one side and not the other, it looks like taking sides,” he said, adding that this could allow Kinshasa to deflect attention from addressing internal security and governance challenges. “In many ways, the AU then kind of behaves like one would expect the EU or the UN or these Western governments to react, because they normally react without much inflexion. I don't know what reason pushes them to always react to things that involve M23, they just react very quickly...” “African governments rarely react to AU statements unless they concern them directly. Perhaps at an AU summit it may be raised by the DR Congo or the East African Community. We will see who raises it, and how.” He noted that the AU position could strengthens Kinshasa’s ability to manipulate the situation and the peace process, using lobbying to influence different bodies and individuals in its favor. “DR Congo is making efforts to influence different actors. It has lobbyists in the United States. It has lobbyists trying to influence the UN,” Mutebi said. But what it means, at least as far as I can see, is that DR Congo is unwilling to address the actual problem within its own territory, which is the presence of insurgent groups undermining the security of neighbouring countries.
