Rwanda’s poultry market is flashing a warning signal we cannot afford to ignore. What we are witnessing today is not ordinary price fluctuation but a structural breakdown in the broiler chicken sector that threatens food security, livelihoods, and national nutrition goals. ALSO READ: What’s behind shortages of broiler meat on the market? Farmers are crushed by runaway feed costs, traders are imposing buying limits detached from production realities, and consumers face erratic prices that turn a basic protein into a luxury item. Left unaddressed, this instability risks undoing years of progress under the second phase of the National Strategy for Transformation (NST2). ALSO READ: Livestock sector players push for strategic cereal reserve amid high feed cost As of early 2026, broiler shortages have pushed prices sharply upward. In Kigali markets, one kilo of chicken now sells at around Rwf7,000, up from Rwf3,600 in November 2025, an unrealistic increase in barely two months. Retail prices surge particularly around festive seasons, yet chicken is consumed year-round. According to reliable sources within the poultry farming community, a standoff has emerged between farmers and buyers. Traders have collectively refused to purchase birds above Rwf5,000, while farmers insist, they will no longer sell below their cost of production. What initially appeared as festive-season pressure has evolved into a deeper crisis driven by feed scarcity and rising input costs. Feed accounts for nearly 70 percent of total production costs. Under these conditions, farmers understandably resist selling at distress prices, even when supply temporarily increases. Week-to-week price swings of 50 percent or more have become common, triggering cycles in which farmers rush to sell one week and withhold birds the next in collective desperation. This disorder discourages investment, compromises bird health, increases disease risk, and erodes trust across the entire value chain. At the heart of this crisis lies a laissez-faire approach applied to a sector where it simply does not work. Poultry is a perishable, high-input, and biologically sensitive commodity. Yet, today, anyone can enter the business without training, technical knowledge, or business planning. This leads to overproduction during low-cost periods and mass exits during feed price spikes. The result is inconsistent quality, speculative trading, and exploitation by middlemen who dictate prices with little transparency. Under such conditions, markets do not self-correct; they spiral. Chicken should never become an expensive luxury in Rwanda. In stable conditions, a kilo of broiler meat should not exceed Rwf2,500 at retail. This level aligns with household purchasing power, supports national nutrition targets, and keeps poultry competitive against alternative proteins and imports. Sustained prices above this threshold reduce consumption, hurt farmers through falling volumes, and squeeze hotels and restaurants that cannot constantly adjust menus to unpredictable supply. When chicken becomes unaffordable, the entire sector contracts, not just consumers. Rwanda has never believed in abandoning strategic food systems to chance. From Girinka to fertilizer subsidies, livestock insurance, and the Smart Nkunganire system, the country has repeatedly demonstrated that targeted state intervention strengthens markets rather than distorts them. Poultry deserves the same pragmatic leadership. Importantly safety and standards are paramount. Mandatory training and certification for poultry farmers, covering nutrition, feed formulation, biosecurity, and basic cost management, would protect animal health, improve quality, and ensure that public support reaches competent producers rather than amplifying chaos. Feed costs must also be addressed head-on, as they remain the single biggest driver of poultry volatility. A grains Nkunganire-style animal feed could dramatically stabilize the sector. A subsidy, delivered through vouchers to registered farmers, would lower production costs, stabilize farm-gate prices, and prevent destructive boom-and-bust cycles. This would not be an unprecedented fiscal burden. Rwanda already subsidizes livestock insurance premiums and has supported poultry start-ups with feed packages. Given poultry’s role in nutrition, employment, and income generation, the return on such an investment would be substantial. Transparency in pricing is equally critical. Indicative floor and ceiling prices, anchored in monitored input costs and published regularly, would help guide fair negotiations and reduce opportunistic exploitation. Strengthening cooperatives, promoting direct links between farmers and large buyers, enforcing anti-hoarding measures, and investing in local feed processing would further reduce vulnerability to shocks and imports. Some will argue that subsidies distort markets or strain public finances. Rwanda’s own experience proves otherwise when support is targeted, digital, and well-governed. Nkunganire transformed crop productivity and food security precisely because it tackled input constraints directly. Doing nothing in poultry would be far more costly, leading to farmer exit, rising imports that drain foreign exchange, and worsening protein malnutrition among low-income households. Rwanda’s agricultural success has always rested on bold, evidence-based action, not market neglect. The poultry crisis demands the same resolve. By combining regulation, capacity building, feed support, and transparent pricing, the country can restore stability, keep chicken affordable, and build a resilient, inclusive broiler sector aligned with national development goals. Affordable nutrition is not optional, and a market left to run wild is not reform. Rwanda knows how to do better and now is the time to ensure the chicken finally crosses the road. The writer is an ideator and alternative development financing strategist.
