Today marks one year since the AFC/M23 rebels took control of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, on January 27, 2025. The capture came weeks after the fall of nearby towns of Sake and Masisi, whose takeover opened the way to Goma. ALSO READ: Goma’s streets, markets, and people one year under AFC/M23 The January events redrew the military and political map of eastern DR Congo and set in motion a dense web of mediation efforts whose outcomes remain contested. In the immediate aftermath, international media portrayed Goma as facing a severe humanitarian crisis, an assessment which was disputed by residents and international visitors who were in the city after the takeover, many of whom reported a gradual return to daily life. What was unmistakable, however, was the collapse of the Congolese government’s military coalition in Goma. Forces allied to Kinshasa including European mercenaries, SADC troops, Burundian forces, the Congolese-backed genocidal militia FDLR, Wazalendo militias were pushed out of areas that AFC/M23 liberated. Those forces had long targeted the Congolese Tutsi communities. According to the AFC/M23 movement, similar violence in South Kivu prompted the advance south, hence the capture of Bukavu on February 16. AFC/M23 maintains that its advances were not territorial conquests but responses to attacks by the government coalition. “We never capture areas as some people say,” Oscar Balinda, a spokesperson of the AFC/M23, told The New Times. “We reach areas for a reason: President Felix Tshisekedi’s policies, the attacks against us, and bombardments that affected large civilian populations.” ALSO READ: AFC/M23 leader Corneille Nangaa states four reasons why his movement is fighting Tshisekedi govt The capture of Goma increased pressure on Kinshasa to engage in talks. Regional efforts led by the East African Community, SADC and the African Union were initiated, but Qatar-mediated talks in Doha proved to be viable, with the key milestones reached since the war began in late 2021. How mediation unfolded After Bukavu fell, President Tshisekedi turned to Qatar, sidelining the Luanda process without notifying Angolan President João Lourenço, who had tried to bring the two parties to the negotiations table. Balinda said Tshisekedi initially sought talks with Rwanda rather than engaging AFC/M23. “He wanted mediation with Kigali, insisting the problem was external,” he said. Rwanda declined that position, stating that while bilateral tensions existed, the AFC/M23 conflict remained an internal Congolese matter. Qatar’s involvement shifted the focus back to dialogue between Congolese parties. Direct talks began in Doha on April 18, the first since the rebel movement resurfaced. On July 19, both sides signed a Declaration of Principles committing to dialogue, a permanent ceasefire, confidence-building measures, the return of displaced people and negotiations toward a final peace agreement. The document raised hopes but soon ran into difficulties. Ceasefire violations continued, deadlines the peace agreement passed and confidence-building steps were not implemented. AFC/M23 says more than 700 of its members remain detained in Kinshasa and other locations, despite the movement having released all prisoners of war it held, including Congolese soldiers, Burundian troops and mercenaries captured during fighting in Goma and surrounding areas. The ICRC took charge of the prisoner release process on September 15, but no releases from the government side followed yet. “We have eight protocols,” Balinda said. “If the first one is not respected, what do you expect from the rest?” ALSO READ: Ceasefire tops the agenda as Kinshasa, AFC/M23 resume peace talks These repeated failures, he said, led to the events in Uvira, a city in South Kivu that was captured on Decmber 10. Attacks from coalition forces, including from Burundian territory, intensified in early December in the border town of Kamanyola. “There are forces the Congolese government cannot control, Wazalendo, FDLR, Burundian troops and mercenaries,” Balinda said. “They attacked our positions on December 2. That is what triggered the advance toward Uvira.” ALSO READ: AFC/M23’s Bertrand Bisimwa explains why rebels were forced to capture Uvira in lightning advance AFC/M23 entered Uvira on December 10 but announced a unilateral ceasefire and withdrawal five days later, describing it as a confidence-building measure to support the Doha peace process. The withdrawal, completed on January 17, was accompanied by formal requests to MONUSCO and the UN Secretary General to deploy a neutral force to protect civilians. “MONUSCO has all the capacity to secure Uvira,” Balinda said. “It would take no more than six hours.” No deployment followed and within hours after the rebels withdrew, looting and violence began, carried out by Wazalendo militias. ALSO READ: Looting, displacement reported in Uvira hours after AFC/M23 withdraw This was followed by the presence of FARDC, Burundian forces, the FDLR, mercenaries and other allied groups, who repeated earlier patterns of abuse. The stalemate in Doha As Doha stalled, Tshisekedi sought to revive the Luanda process. In a January 9 letter to President Lourenço, AFC/M23 political coordinator Corneille Nangaa questioned the legitimacy and relevance of Tshisekedi's attempt at reopening the Angolan track, particularly at a time the Doha framework is still valid. “For us, the Doha process is the one that moved the peace forward,” Nangaa wrote in the letter. “We are waiting for Tshisekedi there.” ALSO READ: Nangaa rejects Tshisekedi's attempt at peace talks in Luanda The AFC/M23 movement says it has yet to receive feedback from the Angolan president on their concerns. Meanwhile the Qatar-led mediation has not resumed since the parties last met in Doha on November 15, at the signing of a peace framework agreement. Despite that milestone, the group says challenges persist on the ground. According to Balinda, African-led initiatives are welcomed for their understanding of regional dynamics, but he stressed that their efforts should remain aligned with the Qatari mediation. As part of the ceasefire framework, defence ministers from the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) met in Zambia on January 10 to discuss security in eastern DR Congo and align their efforts with the Doha track. The movement’s spokesperson said the rebels remain open to all initiatives aimed at restoring peace in eastern DR Congo and are ready to cooperate. He added that they are waiting for a call from Qatar’s mediators to begin discussions on the third of the eight agreed protocols, noting that the group still views the Doha process as credible due to the mediator’s neutrality and consistency in engaging all parties. ALSO READ: AFC/M23 say they will not withdraw from Goma, Bukavu Alongside external mediation efforts, Congolese opposition leaders and faith groups have renewed calls for an internal Congolese dialogue. Congolese Political analyst Alex Mvuka said such a process is necessary to address deeper political failures that continue to fuel instability in the country. He argues that focusing only on AFC/M23 misses the bigger picture. “The problem of the DRC is not just about M23,” he said. “It is about governance.” Mvuka pointed to violence across the country, from CODECO militia and ADF terrorist activity in Ituri and long-running conflicts in Katanga and South Kivu privinces. “There are more than 200 armed groups operating outside state control,” he said. “M23 is only the most visible.” According to Mvuka, Doha’s main achievement was getting Tshisekedi to accept talks, even as he pursued military solutions. “He appeared cooperative while still believing he could win the war,” he said. Since the capture of Goma and other areas under its control, the movement claims relative calm has prevailed. “The population continues to carry out its activities around the clock; essential public services have been fully restored; and the local economy is stabilising,” the AFC/M23 said in a statement on Monday, January 26. Washington Accords The Qatar mediation is seen as complementary to the Washington-facilitated peace process between DR Congo and Rwanda, which led to the signing of long-awaited Washington Accords on December 4. The Washington Accords are aimed at addressing long-standing issues, including existence of the Kinshasa-backed FDLR militia, which remains central to violence in eastern DR Congo and cross-border attacks affecting Rwanda. The US-mediated process also determines the lifting of Rwanda's defensice measures. However, tangible results from the Washington track have yet to emerge. In a recent letter to the US Congress, Rwanda's Ambassador to Washington Mathilde Mukantabana, said her country's defensive measures will remain in place as long as the FDLR threat still exists.
