Featured: Rwanda advances drought preparedness through risk modelling, operational planning

The African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group, in partnership with the Government of Rwanda, has convened a high-level technical workshop in Rubavu focused on finalising Rwanda’s drought risk model and initiating the development of a national Drought Operations Plan. The ongoing workshop has brought together senior technical experts from key ministries and partner organisations to align scientific risk modelling with operational decision-making, reinforcing Rwanda’s capacity to better plan, prepare, and respond to drought shocks. From risk analysis to early action At the heart of the discussions is the finalisation of Rwanda’s Africa RiskView (ARV) drought model, ARC’s flagship risk modelling platform. The model is being calibrated to reflect Rwanda’s specific agricultural seasons, livelihood zones, and vulnerability profiles, ensuring that future drought events can be monitored with greater precision and credibility. Beyond model validation, the workshop also marks the launch of the process to develop a nationally owned Drought Operations Plan. This plan will translate early warning signals into predefined, actionable responses, bridging the critical gap between risk information and timely intervention. “Finalising the Africa RiskView model is not simply a technical exercise, it is a strategic investment that enables countries to anticipate risks and act before crises escalate,” said Dr Jean-Chrysostome Ngabitsinze, Director General of the African Risk Capacity Group. “Preparedness begins long before a shock occurs, and this work ensures that responses are faster, more targeted, and more effective.” Strengthening national ownership and decision-making Participants are engaging in in-depth technical sessions to review model assumptions, datasets, and parameters, while also discussing how climate risk information can be integrated into national planning, budgeting, and disaster risk financing decisions. Delivering remarks on behalf of the Minister of Agriculture and Animal Resources,Jean-Claude Ndorimana, Director General of Animal Resources Development, underscored the strategic importance of the process for Rwanda’s food security and resilience agenda. “This initiative strengthens our national capacity to prepare for drought and informs critical decisions on risk financing and potential engagement in ARC’s risk pool,” he noted. “It is an important step toward safeguarding livelihoods and protecting development gains.” Aligning science, policy, and financing The workshop highlights the importance of linking scientific risk analysis with contingency planning and disaster risk financing instruments. By doing so, Rwanda is positioning itself to move from a reactive response to climate shocks toward a proactive, anticipatory approach, where funding and operational plans are triggered early, before impacts escalate. ARC’s engagement supports this transition by providing technical assistance, risk analytics, and structured planning tools that empower governments to take ownership of their disaster risk management strategies. Looking ahead With the outcomes of the Rubavu workshop, Rwanda is now positioned to make informed decisions on risk transfer, including participation in ARC’s insurance pool.

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Featured: Rwanda advances drought preparedness through risk modelling, operational planning