Defence ministers from the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) are expected to meet in Zambia on Saturday, January 10, to discuss security issues in eastern DR Congo. Items on the agenda include the operationalisation of a long-delayed ceasefire monitoring team tasked with overseeing the ceasefire signed between the Congolese government and the AFC/M23 rebels in Doha in October 2025, according to the ICGLR Secretariat. ALSO READ: DR Congo-AFC/M23 talks: Details of new deal emerge The meeting due in Livingstone will bring together defence ministers from the 12 ICGLR member states: Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. The gathering falls under the Doha-facilitated peace process between the AFC/M23 movement and the Congolese government. On October 14 last year, the two sides signed a ceasefire monitoring agreement establishing the Ceasefire Oversight and Verification Mechanism, which assigns the ICGLR, through its Expanded Joint Verification Mechanism (EJVM), a central role in verifying compliance on the ground. However, the agreement required the monitoring team to be formed within seven days of signing, by October 21, a deadline that passed without implementation, raising questions about the pace and credibility of the process. The defence ministers' meeting was preceded by a meeting of defence chiefs on Friday. “They are meeting to set up the ceasefire monitoring team as a regional bloc, which will also include representatives from the AFC/M23 and the Congolese government,” Oscar Balinda, a spokesperson for the rebels told The New Times. Balinda said that once established, the team will be responsible for monitoring compliance with the ceasefire and assessing whether conditions on the ground warrant the deployment of a neutral force between the warring parties. “The monitoring team is the one to conclude if there is a need for a neutral force, and the bloc could provide it,” he said. He added that the movement continues to place hope in the Doha process despite a stalemate in the talks. ALSO READ: DR Congo crisis: Uncertainty looms over Doha peace talks Mandate of the ceasefire monitoring mechanism The ceasefire agreement establishes a neutral monitoring body composed of equal representatives from DR Congo government and the AFC/M23, with observers from the African Union, Qatar and the United States to enhance transparency and international confidence. Verification will be led by the ICGLR through the EJVM, supported by both parties under the EJVM+ framework, while the UN mission in DR Congo (MONUSCO) will provide logistical and coordination support. The mechanism is mandated to monitor compliance with the ceasefire, investigate reported violations and verify information from the field. It will examine complaints, gather evidence and determine whether incidents, including attacks or troop movements constitute breaches of the ceasefire agreement. The EJVM+ is expected to have unrestricted access to both sides of the frontline and to submit detailed weekly reports to the oversight body. Suspected violations may be reported by any member and must be referred to the EJVM+ within 71 hours for investigation. MONUSCO will facilitate transport and communications, while observers from the AU, Qatar or the United States may join verification missions to ensure neutrality and credibility. ALSO READ: EXCLUSIVE: AFC/M23’s Bertrand Bisimwa explains why rebels were forced to capture Uvira in lightning advance Announcing the Livingstone meeting, the ICGLR secretariat said ministers will deliberate on the security and humanitarian situation in eastern DR Congo and its wider regional implications, with the aim of forging a coordinated regional response in line with the ICGLR Pact on Security, Stability and Development and the Protocol on Non-Aggression and Mutual Defence. Ministers are also expected to review the EJVM+ structure and the terms of reference of the ceasefire agreement agreed in Doha. Analysts weigh in For some analysts, the meeting represents a necessary-if overdue-step toward accountability rather than an immediate breakthrough. Bojana Coulibaly, a Great Lakes conflict researcher and analyst, said the absence of a functioning verification mechanism has allowed repeated ceasefire violations to go unchecked, while responsibility is routinely shifted through competing narratives. “Whether this meeting offers hope for peace or not, it is a necessary step for accountability regarding actions committed on the ground,” Coulibaly told The New Times. “So far, the ceasefire has been violated time and time again by Kinshasa and its coalition, including Burundian forces and the Imbonerakure militia, without any verification mechanism to establish what actually happened.” She argued that the lack of independent verification has enabled systematic reversal of responsibility, with accusations often levelled against AFC/M23 whenever Congolese forces launch operations. Coulibaly cited the shelling of Kamanyola border town in South Kivu province in early December from Burundian territory, which according to the AFC/M23 and locals, hit civilian homes, schools and a hospital, killing eight people and wounding 55 others. “Despite clear testimony from residents and local authorities contesting the official version, Burundi and Kinshasa accused Rwanda of the attack,” she said. “Yet more than 1,200 Congolese civilians fled toward Rwanda, not Burundi, which clearly indicates where the shelling originated.” Coulibaly also pointed to a more recent drone strike in Masisi Centre in North Kivu that killed at least 22 civilians and injured more others, saying Kinshasa again denied responsibility while blaming AFC/M23. “This mechanism, if implemented, should help address the manipulation of narratives and align accountability with realities on the ground,” Coulibaly said, adding that international silence in the face of documented violations has weakened confidence in the process. ALSO READ: AFC/M23 lays to rest 22 civilians killed in DR Congo drone attacks in Masisi Asked about whether the ICGLR can succeed where other regional blocs, such as the East African Community, have struggled, Coulibaly said there were no guarantees but noted that the current framework offers important safeguards. “There is no certainty the ICGLR will be different,” she said. “However, the involvement of both Kinshasa and Rwanda, combined with the EJVM+ and the Doha-signed terms of reference, provides a framework that includes AFC/M23, something that has been consistently undermined by Kinshasa.” She noted that the Congolese government failed to attend the two most recent Doha meetings in December, following repeated statements rejecting dialogue with what it calls “puppets of Rwanda”. ALSO READ: Kinshasa skips signing of Doha peace deal On the Qatar-mediated process itself, Coulibaly said Kinshasa’s rhetoric and actions suggest continued obstruction rather than compromise. “Given the persistent anti-M23 and anti-Rwanda rhetoric, including recent hate speech targeting Congolese Tutsi, it is clear that Kinshasa is likely to delay or undermine the Doha process,” she said. “AFC/M23, by contrast, has attended all meetings, complied with the mediator’s demands, and continues to call for dialogue and a political solution.” She added that Kinshasa remains obligated under the Doha process to release 700 prisoners, many of whom are arbitrarily detained. “If the Doha process fails, it will at least provide clear evidence of Kinshasa’s lack of political will to reach a lasting solution,” Coulibaly said. ALSO READ: Masisi drone strike blamed on MONUSCO as death toll rises to 10 Fatuma Ndangiza, a member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) who closely follows the crisis, said the ICGLR framework remains more promising than other regional efforts she believes have taken sides. “The fact that they are 12 countries gives hope that, if they genuinely seek solutions, they can prevent manipulative actions by states that have chosen sides instead of helping,” she said. “Ensuring ceasefire implementation is possible if there is political will.” Ndangiza said the bloc’s task is relatively straightforward. “The process does not demand much beyond monitoring the ceasefire, which is achievable if the parties are willing and held accountable.” She said regional actors need to seize the opportunity presented by the Qatar-facilitated process, arguing that African-led solutions remain the most viable path to peace. “Africans and regional blocs should by now understand that there are no effective imported solutions to our problems. Our challenges are interconnected, what affects one country affects another, our societies are linked, and our governance systems understand these realities.” “They should therefore fully seize the opportunity presented by the Qatar peace process to ensure a ceasefire, which would open the way for further steps toward peace in the region.” ALSO READ: Kinshasa's drone kills six, injures 41 in Masisi, says AFC/M23 However, independent researcher and crisis observer Fredrick Golooba-Mutebi expressed scepticism, saying he has limited expectations without genuine commitment from Kinshasa. He recalled the deployment and withdrawal of the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) following a unilateral ceasefire by AFC/M23. He recalled that the military mission deployed as a neutral force was later pressured by Kinshasa to either fight the rebels or withdraw. “We all know why East African forces were deployed in eastern DR Congo and why they left. In almost every war, if the warring parties are not willing to stop fighting, no external intervention can end it. It entirely depends on the parties themselves, and both must recognise that it is no longer necessary to fight,” Golooba-Mutebi said. “Every time AFC/M23 calls for a ceasefire, it is the Congolese government that violates it, which shows that the government is interested in fighting rather than a ceasefire. That also means the ICGLR ceasefire monitors are unlikely to deliver a permanent ceasefire as long as one side remains committed to fighting,” he added. Mutebi further said the Qatar-mediated peace process has progressed slowly due to the Congolese government’s failure to honour its commitments, stressing that its success depends on Kinshasa. “The Congolese President still wants to prolong the process while pursuing a military solution, which he will never find,” he argued.
