The government’s ambition to become an upper-middle-income country by 2035 and a high-income economy by 2050 hinges on its ability to sustain double-digit economic growth, according to Rwanda Development Board (RDB) Chief Executive Jean-Guy Afrika. To reach upper-middle-income status by 2035, Rwanda must raise GDP per capita to about $4,000, and to roughly $12,000 by 2050, benchmarks that will require consistent growth of at least 10 per cent, Afrika said. ALSO READ: Economy records double digit growth in third quarter He was speaking during a panel discussion titled “Building a solid foundation for our country” at the 17th Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) Congress held in Rusororo, Kigali. During the Congress, President Paul Kagame said that while recent economic performance shows the economy growing at around 8 per cent this year, the country has the capacity to reach 10 per cent if inefficiencies and other constraints are addressed. “If we can achieve 10 per cent, why settle for 8? Yes, 8 per cent is commendable, but when you know the capacity exists, you should aim higher,” Kagame said. “The reason we didn’t reach 10 per cent is due to mistakes we can now correct. We should also have been clearer about where to start,” he added. ALSO READ: Public transport: Key things to know about Kigali’s 2050 targets The remarks come as Rwanda’s economy posted strong growth in the third quarter of 2025, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising to Rwf5,525 billion from Rwf4,659 billion in the same period last year—an 11.8 per cent year-on-year increase. This followed growth of 7.8 per cent in the second quarter and 6.5 per cent in the first quarter, according to the National Institute of Statistics Rwanda (NISR). Services accounted for 57 per cent of GDP, followed by industry at 22 per cent, agriculture at 15 per cent and net direct taxes at 6 per cent. Afrika outlined several structural challenges facing the economy, including Rwanda’s landlocked location—about 1,500 kilometres from the nearest seaport—high transport costs and a relatively small domestic market that limits purchasing power. He said Vision 2050 seeks to position Rwanda as a regional hub for investment, tourism, transport of people and goods, and services, despite these constraints. ALSO READ: Tanzania eyes boost in railway, air links with Rwanda Achieving this vision, Afrika noted, will require progress in three critical areas: infrastructure development, logistics and connectivity, private-sector growth, and human capital development. On infrastructure, he said the focus must shift from basic access to affordability, efficiency and scale. “By 2050, it’s not just about having access to electricity and water. There is a need for affordability, efficiency and scale,” he said. Logistics, covering road, rail, sea and air transport will be central to reducing trade costs and integrating Rwanda into regional and global value chains. Rwanda is participating in regional initiatives such as the East African Railway Master Plan, which aims to link the country to neighbouring states through standard gauge railways. The planned standard gauge railway (SGR) is expected to improve cargo movement from Indian Ocean ports, including Dar es Salaam and Mombasa, to Kigali and beyond. Afrika added that Rwanda has secured land in several countries, including Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya and Djibouti, to support its logistics ambitions. In the private sector, he stressed the need to strengthen support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to help them scale up and compete regionally and globally. Human capital development is another pillar of the growth strategy. Afrika emphasised the importance of aligning education and skills training with the needs of industry to support economic transformation. While Rwanda benefits from strong governance and leadership, he said ensuring that education systems respond to labour market demands remains a priority. This focus on skills development aligns with Vision 2050 and the National Strategy for Transformation (NST2), which aim to boost productivity, diversify the economy and reduce dependence on agriculture by expanding high-value sectors.
