Since January 2024, Burundi has been experiencing a slow-moving yet profound economic crisis, born from a cascade of political decisions that have transformed this landlocked Great Lakes nation into an isolated island. The closure of its borders first with Rwanda, in January 2024, and then with DR Congo, in December 2025, has plunged the Burundian economy into asphyxiation. The repercussions reveal the structural fragilities of a nation dependent on single trade corridors and vulnerable to regional tensions. ALSO READ: Rwanda regrets border closure by Burundi It is the tragic paradox of a nation that, at the very moment its neighbors negotiate their future in the global strategic-minerals economy, chooses isolation as a response to regional instability. The consequences are stark: inflation averaging 39% in the first two months of 2025 according to the IMF, over half the population living in poverty and border regions teetering on the edge of famine. A gradual march toward isolation On January 11, 2024, the rupture became official: Bujumbura closed all its borders with Rwanda, accusing Kigali of hosting RED-Tabara rebels responsible for a deadly attack in Gatumba at the end of 2023. Rwanda categorically denied the allegations. The closure came just as the two countries had begun mending ties, the borders had reopened only in October 2022 after seven tense years following the 2015 political crisis. ALSO READ: Burundi's unilateral closure of borders with Rwanda is a diplomatic misstep On December 9, 2025, the other strategic gateway shut down: the border with DR Congo was transformed into a militarized zone as the AFC/M23 advance toward Uvira threatened to reach Bujumbura via Lake Tanganyika. Within days, 200,000 people were displaced and more than 25,000 Congolese fled into Burundi. ALSO READ: What are the motivations of Burundi’s military intervention in South Kivu? Today, only the corridors to Tanzania remain operational, pushing Burundi into near-total dependence on the port of Dar es Salaam for 80% of its international trade, a commercial bottleneck of historic proportions. Lives shattered Behind these geopolitical decisions lies a harsh social reality. For border communities, the closure is not a diplomatic issue, it is a direct assault on livelihoods, aspirations and everyday survival. In Rugombo, trader Générose Nshimirimana can no longer sell tomatoes in Rwandan markets where she once tripled her income. In Ngozi, Dévote has lost her primary market for red onions. Thousands like them have joined the ranks of the economically distressed in a nation where 62% of citizens already live below the extreme poverty line. In Ruhwa, the economic devastation is unmistakable: once vibrant tourist facilities are abandoned. Shops, currency-exchange offices, and cafés are overrun by weeds. The lines of moto-taxis that animated the border have vanished. Tourist guide Jérôme Bukuru has seen his income drop by two-thirds. In Gatumba, the last gateway to DR Congo, militarization has brought all commerce to a halt. For a country whose economy relies heavily on proximity trade, this is the equivalent of an oxygen cut-off. Massive macroeconomic shock The ripple effects on the national economy have been immediate and severe. Agriculture accounts for 32.9% of Burundi’s GDP and employs 70% of the labor force. Perishable goods, the backbone of cross-border trade, now have no quick outlet. Trucks carrying fish from Uvira or vegetables from Cibitoke race against time on longer, more expensive routes. Losses mount daily and profit margins evaporate. Already struggling with a five-year energy crisis, Burundi has now lost access to vital informal fuel supplies from DR Congo and Rwanda. This accelerates supply shortages that cripple hospitals, businesses, public transport and even schools. The Kobero–Kabanga corridor to Tanzania, which handles 80% of Burundian trade, is under unprecedented pressure. Despite recent investments that reduced transit times, it cannot absorb the country’s entire commercial load. Public revenues, once boosted by reforms at the Burundi Revenue Authority (OBR), are stagnating. Customs duties have fallen in line with shrinking export volumes. The services sector, which represented over 40% of GDP and grew by 12.5% in 2023, has collapsed, particularly transport, tourism and related industries. Burundi's severe foreign-exchange shortage now paralyzes its ability to finance essential imports, leading to supply ruptures, price hikes and an economy exposed to deep structural vulnerabilities. Tanzania: Lifeline or new dependency? With its western and northern borders sealed, Tanzania has become Burundi’s sole viable partner. More than 80% of the country’s external trade now passes through Dar es Salaam, deepening an already structural dependency. The planned Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) connection for 2028 promises relief, yet may further entrench reliance on this single corridor. Cross-border markets like Muhange, modernized with UN support, are filling with Burundian traders seeking new opportunities. But these openings, while essential, cannot compensate for the losses from Rwanda or the catastrophic closure of the Congolese corridor. Lake Tanganyika offers an underused alternative, but lacking adequate port infrastructure, its potential remains theoretical, too slow and too limited for the current crisis. A shock to regional integration The Burundian crisis highlights a deeper issue: the fragility of the East African Community (EAC). The bloc advocates free movement, yet member states continue to close borders unilaterally, without binding mechanisms to prevent economic damage. Following the Rwanda–Uganda standoff (2019–2022) and now Burundi’s rift with its neighbors, the credibility of regional integration is at stake. African lessons The key lesson from Burundi is clear: landlocked economies cannot rely on a single trade corridor. Diversification is not optional; it is a pillar of national security. Burundi modernized several border posts and launched fiscal reforms, but it did not diversify its commercial routes, strengthen productive capacities, or reduce its dependence on external aid (62% of the national budget). Mineral ambitions, such as the USD15 billion nickel deal with Russia, will not transform the economy in the short term. Agriculture remains dominated by subsistence farming, structurally exposed to shocks. The urgency of dialogue Border closures, intended to enhance security, have become a geo-economic trap that suffocates civilians without stopping armed groups, who easily use informal routes. The only sustainable outcome is diplomatic. Burundi should open borders with all its neighbours. The EAC must develop binding mechanisms to prevent states from isolating each other overnight. The future of Burundi, and of regional integration, depends on balancing security, economics and cooperation. The future of Burundi and that of many landlocked African nations, hinges on building resilient commercial infrastructure, effective regional integration mechanisms and diversified economies less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Without such transformation, today’s border closures will merely foreshadow deeper crises. The Burundian case reveals a fundamental danger: when politics overrides economics and mistrust replaces cooperation, populations pay the price. Behind every closed border lie broken livelihoods and communities divided by barriers erected in their name, yet contrary to their interests. Teddy Kaberuka is an economic analyst specializing in African development, resource economics, geopolitical strategy, and Artificial Intelligence.
