The National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) has maintained its key repo rate at 6.75 per cent, citing that existing conditions are sufficient to contain inflation within the 2–8 per cent target band while sustaining economic activity and ensuring access to credit. Governor Soraya Hakuziyaremye said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and Financial Stability Committee (FSC) reached the decision after reviewing global, regional, and domestic economic developments for the third quarter of 2025. ALSO READ: Central bank digital currency enters proof-of-concept stage Globally, the MPC observed a more resilient environment than previously projected. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects global gross domestic product (GDP) growth to reach 3.2 per cent in 2025, rising slightly to 3.1 percent in 2026. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow at 4.1 per cent in 2025 and 4.4 per cent a year later. Soraya said that global inflation continues to ease, with projections falling to 4.2 per cent in 2025 from 5.8 per cent in 2024. However, while inflation across sub-Saharan Africa remains elevated at 13.1 per cent, the Governor said this largely reflects pressures in a few economies facing currency instability and volatile food prices. ALSO READ: New rule: Who can get paid in foreign currency in Rwanda? Commodity markets also played a significant role in the MPC’s assessment, which found that energy prices are projected to fall by 12.4 per cent this year, and crude oil prices could decline by almost 16 per cent in 2025. Rwanda, however, continues to feel high transport-related costs at the fuel pump. Food prices are expected to drop by 6.1 per cent globally, which should reduce imported inflation. On the domestic front, Rwanda’s external sector continued to strengthen, according to Hakuziyaremye. ALSO READ: A look at new penalties for illegal foreign currency operations in Rwanda Official data indicated that merchandise exports grew by 15 per cent in the third quarter, driven by higher earnings from coffee, tea, and minerals. Non-traditional exports surged by more than 50 per cent, buoyed by strong regional demand for processed goods such as cooking oil and wheat flour. Imports rose at a slower pace of 7.4 per cent, resulting in a more moderate widening of the trade deficit. Strong tourism receipts, robust air transport activity and stable remittance inflows helped maintain adequate foreign exchange reserves — standing at 4.2 months of import cover, above the four-month threshold. ‘A stable franc’ These developments contributed to a more stable Rwandan franc, which depreciated by 4 per cent in September 2025, far below the 6.5 per cent recorded in the same period last year and significantly lower than the 13.7 per cent seen in 2023. Economic growth remains solid. GDP expanded by 7.8 per cent in the second quarter, supported by services, mining, manufacturing, and steady agricultural performance. Internal indicators suggest a similar trend in the third quarter, with the composite index of economic activity rising by 13.2 per cent and business confidence improving. “The MPC considers a 6.75 per cent rate appropriate to keep inflation within target while supporting economic activity and access to finance,” Governor Hakuziyaremye said. Monetary conditions also eased. Interbank rates fell to 5.85 per cent in the third quarter, down from 7.25 per cent a year earlier, reflecting earlier policy adjustments. Lending and deposit rates continued to decline, although with the usual lag relative to policy rate movements. Inflation edged up slightly to 7.2 per cent in the third quarter, driven by higher core and energy prices, but remained within the target range. The Bank projects headline inflation to average 6.9 per cent in 2025 before easing to 5.8 per cent in 2026. Hakuziyaremye said potential risks, including weather-related shocks, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in global trade policies, remain under close watch. However, current projections support maintaining the current stance.
