Though negotiations between the Congolese government and the AFC/M23 might lead to a peace agreement this week, according to DR Congo President Felix Tshisekedi, the rebels have warned that repeated ceasefire violations by Kinshasa and a lack of a clear path for the talks pose roadblocks to any deal. The Declaration of Principles, signed on July 19 in Doha, Qatar, indicated that a permanent ceasefire must be respected by both parties, serving as a critical foundation for confidence-building measures that could ultimately enable a formal peace agreement. However, observers say that continued hostilities in eastern DR Congo could jeopardise the Qatar-mediated peace process. During his visit to Egypt, where he met members of the Congolese community on November 2, Tshisekedi said, the conclusion of this agreement is necessary before he and Rwandan President Paul Kagame could meet in Washington D.C for a meeting with US President Donald Trump. ALSO READ: AFC/M23 leader Corneille Nangaa states four reasons why his movement is fighting Tshisekedi govt The bumpy road to a peace deal? Kinshasa and the AFC/M23 movement signed a ceasefire monitoring agreement on October 14, following the sixth round of peace talks in the Gulf country. The agreement aimed to establish a joint team to monitor and verify the implementation of a permanent ceasefire. It also stipulated that the mechanism would become operational within seven days, by October 21. However, according to the AFC/M23 movement, not much has happened despite continued hostilities. “The ceasefire monitoring team has not been established as expected,” Oscar Balinda, a spokesperson for the movement, told The New Times on Monday, November 3. “The two parties did not meet for reasons that were not communicated by the mediator. Meanwhile, Kinshasa continues its war tactics in eastern DR Congo, carrying out renewed attacks, bombing densely populated areas, and targeting our positions in an attempt to retake our liberated zones.” ALSO READ: What we know as M23, DR Congo set up ceasefire monitoring team Regarding the talks announced by Tshisekedi, Balinda said there were no plans or communication from the mediator about any such meeting or peace deal. “Our negotiation team remains in Doha, where the peace process is taking place, and is always ready to engage in further talks,” he said. “However, we are still stuck at the stage of implementing the permanent ceasefire and awaiting its full activation. At the moment, we have received no communication regarding the next round of talks or the signing of a peace deal. “We are still waiting for genuine talks addressing the root causes of the conflict in DR Congo. First and foremost, the ceasefire team must be established, with a permanent ceasefire implemented and irreversible.” Balinda added that under the new mediation developments, the process would proceed through five newly initiated protocols. He declined to disclose details but noted that no progress has yet been made on the first protocol. ALSO READ: AFC/M23 vows self-defence as Kinshasa launches offensive 'on all fronts' What options if hostilities continue? When asked about their options if Kinshasa maintained their attacks and the peace talks failed to deliver any breakthrough, Balinda echoed the movement’s political leader Corneille Nanga's recent remarks: “If the government continues to attack civilians and our positions, it would mean the Doha peace process holds no importance.” “There have been repeated ceasefire violations reported to the mediator, but no action has been taken. We expect the mediator to hold parties accountable,” Balinda added. ALSO READ: AFC/M23 writes to UN Secretary-General over atrocities in eastern DR Congo He noted that Kinshasa had a history of failing to honor its own commitments, recalling the prolonged suffering of Congolese refugees living in neighbouring countries. He accused Tshisekedi's government of having dictatorial tendencies, citing the recent dissolution of 12 opposition parties following their leaders’ meeting with former President Joseph Kabila in Kenya on October 14. “There are issues they agree to at the peace talks and even sign, yet their actions afterward show no political will to implement the agreements, Balinda said of the Congolese government. They remain focused on advancing the war, recruiting mercenaries every day, redeploying government soldiers, bombing civilians with Sukhoi fighter jets, and deploying warships through Lake Tanganyika. The President appears intent on resolving the crisis through military means.” ALSO READ: DR Congo: M23 says civilian massacres 'can no longer be ignored' Crisis observers’ perspective Fatuma Ndangiza, a member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA), stressed that the Qatar-mediated peace talks mean little without commitment and consistency. She warned that signing agreements and delivering speeches alone will not resolve the conflict. “The parties must translate their commitments into action. Qatar is recognized as a reliable mediator; neither AFC/M23 nor the Congolese government has raised doubts about the mediator,” Ndangiza said. “It should not be discouraged. Instead, it should continue leveraging its influence to ensure the parties consider the investments already made, rather than letting previous efforts stall, keeping in mind the interests of Congolese citizens and the region. Qatar alone may not resolve the crisis in DR Congo, but its voice carries weight, in collaboration with other players.” She further emphasized the need for particular attention to DR Congo, noting that while the Congolese technical team has shown some commitment, Tshisekedi should be held accountable for stalling progress at the final stages of negotiations. “Political will starts at the highest level. Despite the consistent efforts of Congolese diplomats, the game-changer remains their president. It has been observed that Tshisekedi has repeatedly stalled the process at the last minute,” she said, referring to delays in the Qatar-mediated peace process and previous talks between DR Congo and Rwanda. ALSO READ: DR Congo govt forces 'bombed civilians immediately after ceasefire agreement' Ndangiza highlighted that key actors, especially the AFC/M23 movement and the Congolese president, must create an enabling environment for peacebuilding, ensure security in eastern DR Congo, and facilitate the implementation of both the Doha process and the June 27 peace deal between DR Congo and Rwanda. She urged Congolese citizens, mediators, the African Union, and the United Nations to push for progress and hold Tshisekedi accountable while encouraging the AFC/M23 to keep its commitments to the peace process. “If Tshisekedi had approached the mediation as an opportunity to ensure peace and stability in his country, the crisis would have been resolved long ago, she said. There should be a sense of urgency, as peace in DR Congo is closely linked to stability in Rwanda, regional security, and the well-being of Congolese citizens, particularly those who have sought refuge in Rwanda and the wider region. A definitive pause is needed to allow the country to focus on its development. ALSO READ: 80-year-old Congolese reflects on lifetime of injustice, attacks in DR Congo “With or without mediators, the leadership in DR Congo must stop blaming Rwanda and others for the country’s instability and instead take the situation seriously with genuine determination to end the crisis. There has been a long-standing governance deficit, creating a vacuum that must be addressed once and for all,” Ndangiza said. She also pointed to international actors reluctant to hold the Congolese government accountable due to their vested interests. “Anyone pursuing economic, political, or bilateral interests in DR Congo and siding with the government in its wrongdoings should understand that no benefits will materialize as long as the crisis persists. We all want a stable DR Congo with sustainable peace, to foster cooperation at both regional and global levels.” ALSO READ: Timeline of events before and after M23 entered Goma Despite the prevailing situation, Balinda emphasized that the movement remained committed to peace efforts. “We are committed to any forum where peace initiatives may arise. We have engaged in talks in Uganda, Nairobi, Burundi, Luanda, and now Doha. We never tire in seeking peace and remain determined to resolve the issues through dialogue, that is our path,” he said. He further asserted that Tshisekedi’s preference for war allows him to stay in power. “He lost both the first and second elections, and he is now exploiting the crisis so that he can entrench his hold on to power, portraying himself as the only person who can end this war, militarily, Balinda said.
