Rwanda’s hopes of securing a historic first-ever FIFA World Cup qualification were handed a surprise boost this week after FIFA’s disciplinary committee docked South Africa three points for fielding an ineligible player in their 2-0 win over Lesotho back in March. The reversal of the result — now a 3-0 forfeit win in Lesotho’s favour, has shaken up Group C standings of the 2026 FIFA World Cup African qualifiers, throwing open a group that many people had thought was beginning to settle into a predictable pattern, with two rounds of matches remaining. South Africa, previously top, now sit second behind Benin, both tied at 14 points, with Bafana Bafana behind on goal difference. Nigeria is third with 11 points, and Rwanda trail just behind with the same tally but an inferior goal difference (0 compared to Nigeria’s +2). With two games remaining, Amavubi still have a mountain to climb. But thanks to FIFA’s ruling, the path, while narrow, is now clearer. Rwanda’s final two fixtures are as daunting as they are decisive — a home match against Benin, on October 10, at Amahoro Stadium, followed by an away clash with South Africa in Johannesburg, on October 14. Coach Adel Amrouche team's fate lies not just in their own hands, but in the results elsewhere — and in some cases, prayer (if you believe in divine intervention), for, Amavubi is going to need it. What Rwanda needs to do To have a genuine fighting chance to qualify as Group C winners and secure automatic passage to the World Cup in the USA, Mexico, and Canada, Rwanda must beat Benin on October 10. This is non-negotiable. Non-debatable. Anything less than three points and Rwanda is effectively out of the automatic qualification race. A win would move them level with Benin on 14 points and give them the head-to-head advantage (having drawn 1-1 in the reverse fixture). But also, Amavubi need victory over Bafana Bafana on October 14. Rwanda famously beat South Africa 2-0 in the reverse fixture in November 2023, in Huye. A repeat performance away from home would see them reach 17 points — a tally that could be enough to top the group, depending on other results. Rwanda needs everything to fall in place for them — but life isn't so straightforward. Win and hope Nigeria drops points. Nigeria will face Lesotho and Benin in the final two matches. While the Super Eagles are favourites, on paper, their form has been inconsistent. Rwanda will hope Lesotho, buoyed by the points awarded by FIFA, can steal at least a draw. More importantly, Rwandans will be rooting for Nigeria to drop points to Benin on the final day — otherwise, the goal difference race could get complicated. What could go wrong Even if Rwanda wins its games, qualification isn’t guaranteed, and we could look back to what might have been — and what if. If Nigeria wins both matches, it will also finish on 17 points. In such a scenario, goal difference will decide the group winner. Rwanda would need to win by significant margins to outscore Nigeria’s potential goal tally. Scoring goals has forever been Amavubi's achiles heel. Similarly, if South Africa beat Zimbabwe before hosting Rwanda, they could also reach 17 points. Once again, goal difference could become the decider. Rwanda’s current goal difference is zero. That’s where they trail the most. Benin (+4), South Africa (+3), and Nigeria (+2) all have a cushion. Simply winning may not be enough — winning big might be necessary, and that could be asking too much, I'm afraid. The playoff safety net Even if Rwanda fails to top the group, hope may still lie in the CAF playoff route. The top four second-placed teams across the nine African groups will move into a playoff stage, with one team ultimately entering the intercontinental playoff. To remain in that conversation, Rwanda will almost certainly need to finish second in the group with at least 15 or more points and a solid goal difference. A draw and a win might not suffice — they’ll likely need all six points from the final two games. Rwanda’s dream is alive, but it’s teetering on a tightrope. Beat Benin. Beat South Africa. Score as many goals as possible. Pray for Nigeria to falter. All this need to fall in place for Amavubi! It’s pretty much a tall order — but if Amavubi’s history-making ambitions are to be realized, they’ll need to play their finest football in the final two fixtures. Whatever happens for them in those two matches will need to be precedent-setting. They’ve done it before — notably humbling South Africa in Huye, and with belief, discipline and a touch of fortune, Rwanda might just rewrite the script. It's now up to Amrouche and Co to stand up, deliver, and be counted among Rwanda's folklore. The nation watches. The dream continues, albeit despairingly. Let's beat Benin next Friday. C'mon!
