As geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, Rwanda is rightly assessing the potential ripple effects on its economy, particularly in energy supply. The government’s measured response, as presented in Parliament on June 19, reflects an encouraging level of foresight and strategic planning. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow yet critical passage for 20% of the world’s oil supply, sits at the centre of these concerns. Any disruption there could raise fuel prices globally, including in Rwanda, which depends heavily on imported petroleum. Given Rwanda’s landlocked status and reliance on global trade routes, the country’s vulnerability to such international shocks is real and persistent. However, this vulnerability is not met with passivity. Infrastructure Minister Jimmy Gasore noted that Rwanda already maintains strategic fuel reserves and continues to monitor import flows closely. This, paired with Prime Minister Edouard Ngirente’s assurance that Rwanda is actively assessing potential impacts and response mechanisms, offers a sense of preparedness that is both necessary and reassuring. More importantly, Rwanda’s plan to triple its national fuel reserves from 110 million to 320 million litres over the next two years signals a long-term commitment to resilience. This investment will give the country a crucial buffer during supply disruptions, allowing time for global markets or diplomatic efforts to stabilize. That said, resilience goes beyond stockpiling. A robust energy strategy should also include investment in alternative energy sources, improved efficiency, and regional cooperation on fuel logistics. Diversifying supply chains and accelerating the shift to cleaner energy can cushion Rwanda not only from price shocks but also from the environmental and political risks that fossil fuel dependence brings. While Rwanda cannot control global geopolitics, it can, and is, taking commendable steps to shield its economy and citizens from their fallout. This moment should serve as both a warning and an opportunity: to deepen preparedness, fast-track energy reforms, and future-proof the economy against the uncertainties of an increasingly unstable world.
