The global trade landscape is shifting dramatically. With the U.S. imposing new tariffs on key imports with countries already planning retaliation, the world is edging deeper into a long-term trade war. This is not just a bilateral dispute. It signals the acceleration of a broader move away from open globalisation toward protectionism and economic nationalism. For Africa, this rupture in the global order presents both risks and rare opportunities. Historically positioned on the periphery of global value chains and heavily reliant on raw material exports, Africa has often been a passive player in the trade system. But in a world where resilience is beginning to matter more than efficiency and where supply chains are being restructured around politics, not just cost Africa’s relevance is growing. Africa can no longer afford to wait for global shifts to play out around it. It must define its role and shape its strategy. The current global trade environment, defined by fragmentation and realignment, provides a window for the continent to reposition itself as a credible, strategic partner for regions like the European Union, China, and emerging economies seeking new sources of supply and new markets. First and foremost, Africa must use this moment to accelerate its intra-continental integration. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a unique opportunity to build regional value chains and industrial depth. By strengthening internal trade, improving infrastructure, and reducing non-tariff barriers, Africa can become a more attractive destination for investment from companies seeking alternatives to traditional supply routes. However, internal integration alone won’t be enough. Africa must also focus on building strategic trade relationships with major blocs, particularly the EU and China. Europe remains Africa’s biggest trading partner, and China its largest infrastructure investor. But both relationships need to evolve. Africa should push for trade agreements that go beyond commodity exports, focusing instead on value addition, technology transfer, and co-investment in manufacturing and logistics. China’s growing dependence on Africa’s critical minerals—cobalt, lithium, and rare earths—provides leverage. But rather than remain locked into extractive relationships, Africa must negotiate for local processing, joint ventures, and green industrial development. The same applies to the EU, where Africa’s role in supplying key inputs for the energy transition should be linked to stronger industrial partnerships and fairer trade terms. Amid all this, Africa must also diversify its external partners. India, the Gulf states, Türkiye, and Southeast Asian nations are increasing their trade footprint on the continent. A deliberate strategy to engage these actors—not as donors, but as equal partners—can help Africa avoid being caught in a binary contest between China and the West. To realise these goals, Africa must invest in its own capacity. Trade facilitation remains a major barrier. Fragmented regulations, poor logistics, and underdeveloped infrastructure drive up costs and diminish competitiveness. The continent must prioritise investments in ports, customs harmonisation, digital systems, and cross-border connectivity. Equally important is skills development. Africa’s young population is often touted as an asset, but without training, vocational education, and innovation hubs, it will not translate into industrial strength. Africa needs to prepare its workforce to participate in higher-value segments of the global economy. The world is entering a period of de-globalisation, driven by fear, competition, and fragmentation. But for Africa, this is a chance to step up—not as a victim of global forces but as an architect of its own trade future. By building strong regional foundations, negotiating smarter partnerships, and investing in its people and infrastructure, Africa can shift from the margins to the centre of the new global economy. The world is rearranging its supply chains. Africa must now decide whether to remain a resource provider or to become a competitive player. The choice—and the opportunity—is urgent. The writer is an economist.
