Africa’s industrialisation is not just an economic challenge – it is a political one. The continent’s struggle to transition from a raw material exporter to a manufacturing powerhouse is rooted in governance failures, not a lack of resources or investment. Without strong institutions, consistent policies, and leadership committed to long-term transformation, industrialisation will remain out of reach. Paul Collier, in The Bottom Billion, highlights that economic success is not about resource wealth but about governance. Many African countries remain trapped in a cycle of exporting raw materials because short-term political interests prioritise immediate revenue over long-term value creation. The failure to build strong institutions has led to policy instability, corruption, and weak enforcement of contracts, all of which deter industrial investment. Businesses cannot grow in an environment where regulations change unpredictably, bureaucracy stifles innovation, and political considerations outweigh economic logic. Industrial revolutions require more than infrastructure and investment; they demand governance structures that provide stability and direction. Countries like South Korea, Malaysia, and China successfully industrialised because their governments prioritised long-term strategies, protected key industries, and created regulatory environments that attracted investment. In Africa, however, frequent policy reversals and inconsistent industrial policies make it difficult for businesses to invest in manufacturing. Industrialisation requires a planning horizon of decades, but many African governments operate on short-term cycles driven by political interests rather than economic necessity. One of Africa’s biggest obstacles is its reliance on commodity exports, which generate immediate state revenue but discourage local manufacturing. Instead of developing industries that process and refine resources, governments continue to depend on raw material exports, leaving Africa vulnerable to price fluctuations and external market control. Collier describes this as the “natural resource trap,” where resource-rich countries remain poor because they fail to convert raw wealth into industrial capacity. Instead of using resource revenues to develop manufacturing and create high-value jobs, Africa continues to import finished products at a premium, reinforcing economic dependency. Political stability and policy consistency are essential for industrialisation. Investors and businesses need certainty to plan long-term, but many African economies remain unpredictable due to shifting regulations and leadership changes. A country cannot build a strong industrial base when policies change every election cycle or when foreign investors are given priority over local entrepreneurs. Too often, African governments seek foreign direct investment without ensuring that it benefits local industry. The result is a system where foreign companies profit while domestic businesses struggle to scale. Industrial policy should focus on strengthening local production, ensuring that foreign investment contributes to value addition rather than mere resource extraction. Collier argues that policy choices in many African nations are driven by political convenience rather than strategic economic planning. Leaders often focus on large-scale infrastructure projects, debt-driven growth, and short-term economic boosts rather than investing in manufacturing ecosystems. Industrial policies require governments to make difficult trade-offs, such as protecting emerging industries, enforcing local sourcing requirements, and resisting external pressures that favor free-market policies over strategic economic interventions. Countries like South Korea succeeded because they actively directed investment into targeted sectors, controlled market entry to protect domestic businesses, and built institutions that ensured policy continuity. Africa must learn from these examples by implementing targeted industrial policies that prioritise local production. Markets should not be opened too quickly without ensuring that domestic industries can compete. Industrialisation is not simply about attracting foreign capital but about building an economic system that empowers African businesses. Countries like Ethiopia and Rwanda have demonstrated that strong governance can drive economic change, even in challenging environments. Ethiopia’s industrial parks and export-oriented manufacturing strategy and Rwanda’s business-friendly regulatory framework are examples of how governance can enable industrial growth. But leadership alone is not enough—institutions must be strong enough to maintain policies beyond political cycles. Independent regulatory agencies, professionalised civil services, and anti-corruption mechanisms are necessary to ensure that industrial strategies remain effective over time. If Africa is to industrialise, it must shift its focus from short-term political gains to long-term governance reforms. Industrial policies must remain stable across administrations, ensuring that businesses and investors can plan. Governments must create independent institutions that enforce policies without political interference. Corruption must be addressed, as no industrialisation effort can succeed in an environment where economic decisions are distorted by personal interests. Governments must also engage the private sector in shaping policies, ensuring that industrial strategies align with business realities. The debate on Africa’s industrial future must move beyond infrastructure and investment figures and focus on governance. Economic growth does not come from foreign aid or commodity exports alone—it comes from strong institutions, consistent policies, and leadership that prioritises long-term economic development over short-term political calculations. Africa has the resources, the talent, and the market potential to industrialise. What it lacks is the governance framework to make it happen. The battle for Africa’s economic future is not in Washington, Beijing, or Brussels—it is in the halls of African governments, where policies are made, and where the decision to prioritise, industrialisation must become a political, not just an economic, commitment. The author is an economist.
