East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) heads of state and government will, on Saturday, February 8, meet over ways to possibly bring an end to the escalating security situation in eastern DR Congo. A related ministerial meeting was held on Friday ahead of the heads of state session. ALSO READ: EAC, SADC presidents confirm participation in DR Congo talks The EAC deployed troops to eastern DR Congo in November 2022 to support regional efforts to restore peace in the troubled region. At the time, M23 rebels had made large gains, capturing swathes of territory in areas bordering Rwanda and Uganda in North Kivu Province. M23 is now a member of a larger rebel coalition, Alliance fleuve Congo (AFC), created in December 2023 in Kenya’s capital Nairobi. The AFC says it is fighting for governance that supports basic human rights, secures all citizens, and addresses the root causes of conflict. Its leaders have vowed to uproot tribalism, nepotism, corruption, and genocide ideology, among other vices, widespread in DR Congo. VIDEO: Corneille Nangaa on capture of Goma, FDLR, and march to Kinshasa The East African Community regional force (EACRF), with troops from Kenya, Burundi, Uganda, and South Sudan, was able to create a conducive environment for peace to prevail by having M23 withdraw to designated areas and maintain a ceasefire between the rebels and the Congolese army until its breach in October 2023, something that reversed the gains that had so far been realised. Soon after deployment, however, Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi was critical, threatening to expel the regional force from his country. The EAC regional force which derived its mandate from Chapter 23 of the EAC Treaty and the EAC Protocol on Peace and Security, had a hard time in eastern DR Congo, ever since its deployment. Its first force commander Maj Gen Jeff Nyagah resigned, after a few months, citing threats to his security. Kinshasa wanted the regional force to battle the M23, which was not part of the latter's operational mandate. EAC’s troops begun withdrawing from DR Congo, in early December 2023, just over a year after they were deployed to support peace efforts for the country’s conflict-ridden eastern DR Congo. The EAC-led Nairobi process takes in the fact that the insecurity in eastern DR Congo pre-dates 1994, when a genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda claimed more than one million innocent lives, and was exacerbated by the retreat of defeated genocidal forces into eastern DR Congo where they regrouped to cause instability in the region. ALSO READ: Timeline of events before and after M23 entered Goma After EACRF’s exit, Tshisekedi welcomed troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), or SAMIDRC, to battle the rebels. From then on, instead of getting better, the security situation in eastern DR Congo, worsened. ALSO READ: You sent our soldiers to die in DR Congo for selfish interests - South African MPs to government Reports that the latter actually collaborated not only with the Congolese army but also with militias like FDLR and European mercenaries in fighting the AFC/M23 rebels further complicated the situation. The FDLR is a DR Congo-based terrorist militia founded by remnants of the masterminds of the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda. ALSO READ: Malawi orders troops out of eastern DR Congo The alliance of foreign forces, including SAMIDRC and FDLR, deployed to eastern DR Congo had combat objectives not limited to defeating M23 but also attacking Rwanda, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said early this month. It was noted that SAMIDRC together with coalition partners that include neighbouring Burundi’s armed forces, FDLR, and European mercenaries, were central to the conflict, and should not be there because they are adding to the problems that already existed. ALSO READ: SADC mission in DR Congo should withdraw, says South African defence analyst The argument that SAMIDRC was invited by the Congolese government “is rendered void by the fact that they are there to fight the citizens of that country [AFC/M23], and effectively bring war to Rwanda, Kigali said. Ahead of Saturday’s EAC-SADC meeting, The New Times talked to political analysts for their thoughts on what might be on the cards when the leaders meet. SADC’s intervention without consulting EAC Alex Mvuka, a UK-based Congolese governance and peacebuilding expert, observed that SADC’s intervention in the EAC region without consulting the EAC bloc, will be a key point of discussion. Mvuka said: “That is going to be one of the possible discussions. “SADC came to intervene in North Kivu without consulting the East African Community. And that move has divided the East African Community. Some of the actors within the East African Community behaved differently,” he said, giving an example of, for example, Burundi which got drawn into the war on a bilateral basis. ALSO READ: President Ndayishimiye on the spot over Burundian army mandate in DR Congo The war between a Congolese government army coalition that included FDLR, over 10,000 Burundian troops, 1,600 European mercenaries, and South Africa-led SADC forces, against M23 rebels started in 2021. Last week, close to 300 European mercenaries who survived the rebels’ advance on Goma surrendered and were given safe passage, through Rwanda, to return home. A review and assessment of the SADC intervention in DR Congo, he said, could result in “a heated debate.” “There was no consultation with EAC. And EAC forces were withdrawn. This discussion will involve tensions.” SADC’s exit strategy, Mvuka said, should be on the cards, considering “the need to leave the matters back to EAC.” On an optimistic note, he added, “states will thank Tshisekedi for accepting to negotiate.” De-escalation Benjamin Machar, a political scientist at University of Juba, South Sudan, thinks that a key point on the agenda will be de-escalation of the current situation, as well as fostering humanitarian support for the people of Goma. “Those people need humanitarian assistance,” he said. The M23, on Monday, February 3, declared a unilateral ceasefire which rebel spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka said was declared for humanitarian reasons. But before the ceasefire could take effect, on Tuesday, fighting had erupted. Mvuka who is a researcher, political and security analyst on the great lakes region, also observed that “Burundi is fully geared towards a war.” The de-escalation of the conflict is important, he said. FDLR question Aggée Shyaka Mugabe, a senior lecturer and conflict analyst from University of Rwanda's Center for Conflict Management, expects the summit to talk about the problem of genocidal militia. “This [FDLR] has been the most important cause of conflict between Rwanda and DR Congo,” he said. ALSO READ: Why genocide ideology doesn’t dissolve three decades after dispersion of genocidaires Kigali has often complained about the presence of a genocidal ideology in eastern DR Congo and the support given to the genocidal militia by the Congolese government. Dr. Machar also hinted at the FDLR problem, recalling how the militia group has in the past made several attempts to forcefully return to Rwanda. “I think it is a legitimate point for the state or Rwanda to air out, so that Congolese authorities should actually address it,” he said. Inclusion of M23 in talks Shyaka also expects the summit to talk about the inclusion of the AFC/M23 in discussions aimed at finding a lasting solution to the crisis in eastern DR Congo. “I don't see how things will move forward if one of the key actors is completely ignored, which leads me to conclude that there is very little chance of success,” he said. The government of DR Congo has repeatedly refused to dialogue with the rebels. Shyaka also pointed out that he expects Saturday’s meeting to involve blame games which may deter discussions about the core issues. “I am not sure that (the leaders) will have enough time to concentrate on the core issues. Even if they were to do so, in the absence of one of the key actors, which is AFC/M23, I don't see where this is going to lead,” he said. Mvuka also said that discussions will focus on “a political solution to the problem.” Diplomatic and political solutions involving addressing the root causes of the crisis are critical, he said.
