Rwanda has recorded 2024 as the hottest year, with temperatures 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than those before the industrial revolution (based on the 1850-1900 average), Rwanda Meteorology Agency announced on January 22. This was a 0.3 degree increase from 2021, the second hottest year on record, when the meteorology agency reported 0.8 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial revolution levels. Aimable Gahigi, the director general of the weather agency, said that as a result of rising temperatures “rainy seasons are becoming shorter and more intense.” ALSO READ: World’s hottest day ever recorded in July - scientists Rwanda has experienced a temperature increase of 1.4 degrees Celsius since 1970, higher than the global average, and projects a temperature rise of up to 2.0 degrees by the 2030s compared to 1970 levels. As a result, the number of rainy days in Rwanda has declined by 35 to 45 days per year due to climate change ALSO READ: Many parts of Rwanda to get minimal rains Speaking during the National Climate Outlook Forum on Wednesday, January 22, Gahigi noted that the last rainy season (September to December) saw lower amounts of rainfall than the same season in 2023. The amount of rainfall in the last four months of 2024 was below forecast levels, which has affected farmers in various parts of the country. In some parts of the country, rainfall was delayed, and this affected farmers, Gahigi said, stressing that it was a result of rising temperatures globally and in Rwanda. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations, confirmed 2024 as the warmest year on record, with 1.55 degrees Celsius, warmer than the global temperature levels that existed before the industrial revolution, driven by ongoing climate change caused by human activities. This implies that the average global temperature in 2024 was the highest ever recorded, surpassing previous years. The past decade, from 2015 to 2024, comprises the 10 warmest years on record, according to the WMO. ALSO READ: Farmers shift to short-cycle crops amidst minimal rains Health effects from rising temperatures While climate change affects agriculture, contributing to malnutrition, scientists have also warned that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to see a surge in malaria cases due to rising temperatures. ALSO READ: Invasive mosquitoes could fuel malaria upsurge in Africa The typically cooler Northern Province of Rwanda faces an increased risk of malaria as temperatures rise, the Rwanda Environment Management Authority (REMA) warned in 2023. Warming temperatures are expanding the risk area for malaria, pushing the disease into previously unaffected regions, according to the Rwandan Ministry of Health. To gather essential data on climate change's impact on health, including malaria cases in cooler regions, a new three-year project was launched in 2023. The $1 million initiative, called Standards for Official Statistics on Climate-Health Interactions in Rwanda, is conducting research to establish statistical relationships between climate change and issues such as injury, mortality from extreme weather events, water-borne diseases, respiratory illnesses, zoonotic diseases, air pollution, and potential future non-communicable diseases. ALSO READ: Climate change could erode 7% of Rwanda’s GDP by 2050 Similien Ndagijimana, a scientist working on the nexus between climate and health at the Ministry of Health, explained that climate data plays a crucial role in various health aspects, particularly in understanding and mitigating the impact of climate change. “It helps predict outbreaks of climate-sensitive diseases like malaria and cholera. Moderate rainfall (87 millimitres to 223 millimetres per month) increases the risk of malaria,” Ndagijimana said. He added that studies have shown that extreme temperatures increase mortality risks for cardiovascular conditions, with elevated relative risks for heart failure and pneumonia. Regional temperature forecast Below-normal rainfall is forecast in most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, which include Rwanda, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre said on January 21. Below-average rainfall is expected in much of Rwanda, Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania. Temperature forecast indicates a higher likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with the highest probabilities (more than 75 per cent) over Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, and northern Kenya, the centre said. The predicted climatic conditions for the March-May 2025 season are forecast to likely have gender-differentiated impacts, with more adverse effects expected to be pronounced among women, children, the elderly, and persons with disabilities.
