In the future, energy systems will look entirely different from those we have today. We are living in the times of a global energy transition, which some would even call a revolution, gaining momentum by the day. Greener, more sustainable practices have been in the spotlight for over a decade now, and the ongoing war in Ukraine is setting off some meaningful procedures in motion as nations try to find creative ways to stir away from Russian oil. As the energy industry continues this challenging transition period, renewables are put on a global pedestal. Long-term trends are increasingly green The global energy sector has had 3 very turbulent years. The industry was hit hard during peak Covid times, and the war in Ukraine triggered significant price rises, as the market strongly depends on supply security and affordability. Now, it seems as if the desire to stir away from Russian oil and gas might catalyse a quicker, more significant sector revision. McKinsey’s latest Global Energy Perspective offers insight into the longer-term trends reshaping the energy landscape. According to the publication, renewable energy sources (RES) are projected to lead the power generation mix, reaching 80 —90% in 2050. Most of the growth will come from solar and wind due to declining costs which have been a driving factor in the explosion of renewables. Since 2010, the cost of solar photovoltaic electricity has fallen 85%, becoming the most cost-effective energy source in the world. And it is a positive feedback loop that keeps on giving; the more renewable energy technologies are deployed, the cheaper they become, leading to more deployment. The numbers are extremely positive - over the past decade, each time that the amount of solar capacity deployed worldwide has doubled, the price of installing solar capacity has declined by 34%. With falling costs and growing adoption, the sun-based marvel is projected to make up 43% of the global generation in 2050. But we do not have to wait that long. According to a recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report, By 2026, global renewable electricity capacity is forecast to rise more than 60% from 2020 levels to over 4 800 GW – equivalent to the current global power capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear combined. The amount of renewable capacity added from 2021 to 2026 is expected to be 50% higher than from 2015 to 2020. The world is going solar, but what about Africa? Looking at the renewable revolution from a geographical point of view, growth is forecast to increase in all regions. China remains the global leader in the volume of capacity additions. India is set to come top in terms of the growth rate, while deployments in Europe and the United States are also on track to speed up significantly from the previous five years. These four markets are set to account for 80% of renewable capacity expansion worldwide by 2026. So, where does Africa stand? The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) forecasts that with the right policies, regulations, and investment, sub-Saharan Africa could meet up to 67 percent of its energy needs by 2030 through renewables. Across the continent, multiple countries are increasingly embracing renewables, set to leapfrog to a sustainable energy future. Big countries, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, and South Africa, have shown a firm commitment to accelerating renewable adoption, while smaller countries, including Cape Verde, Swaziland, and Rwanda, have also set ambitious targets. With year-round sunshine, Africa has 40 % of the world’s solar potential, yet the continent contains only 1 % of the world’s solar panels. That seems like an unsuited gap considering the continent still boasts 700 million people living without electricity access that could benefit from affordable solar products. The solution? A combination of local regulations and subsidies and international investment. African governments lift barriers currently impeding global efforts by private stakeholders, both for large-scale solar plants and off-grid systems that could connect hundreds of millions quickly and in the most affordable way. It is becoming increasingly clear to investors worldwide that Africa holds some incredible opportunities for impact and scale, and governments should be supporting these efforts by every means possible. Sustainable electrification is the easiest path to boosting economies, establishing inclusivity, and creating a brighter future for hundreds of millions. It is time that Africa realizes its sunny potential. The writer is an entrepreneur and investor,leading sustainability-driven companies in Africa and the Middle East
