As Rwanda prepares itself for hosting CHOGM, I am reflecting on the main theme chosen for this year’s meeting, “Delivering a Common Future: Connecting, Innovating, Transforming.” This week’s reflection is on the word ‘Common’ and in fact the events of the past week have highlighted this important word. In reality, a number of events over the years have highlighted what common really means in a global economy. There is no doubt that we are living in a world that has never been so interconnected and interwoven as now. Globalisation and technology have reduced distances and the world economy is today totally interconnected notwithstanding the digital divide that exists and the number of people that are cut off from the world due to poverty. However, the true commonality of globalisation is much more felt in the adverse effects and their impacts and as we have repeatedly seen over the past few years, an event in one country and quickly trigger a global impact within days. The commonality of threats and adverse effects multiplies in impact and its transmission time continues to reduce itself. There are a number of global crises that highlight this. This 2008 global financial crisis has shown the world how connected and interwoven the global finance market is. A collapse of the sub=prime mortgage market in the US quickly took the world down with an ensuing global economic recession. Vulnerable countries, such as small island states and low-income developing countries, also suffered both direct and indirect impacts of this crisis as its impact brought the world economy to its knees. The COVID-19 pandemic has also highlighted the commonality of a global pandemic and the ensuing global economic crash. In today’s world, especially the pre-COVID one, world travel has never been so high. People were constantly travelling, and this airborne virus spread all over the world in a matter of weeks bringing in a global response which halted economic and social activity. This pandemic truly halted the world. Airports were at a standstill as health authorities tried to manage the public health crisis with contagion rates soaring together with deaths. Public finances were put under immense pressure as governments invested heavily to sustain economic activity and increased the resources for healthcare. The need for vaccines has once again highlighted the inequalities in its global distribution and is further impacting low-income countries. The economic impact has been tremendous especially on government debt around the world. In addition, economies that are highly dependent on tourism, and here many CHOGM countries, especially islands are, suffered the brunt of travel restrictions tilting economies into recessions. The inactivity during the height of the pandemic has led to a succession of events which have limited supply chains triggered a global shortage and bottleneck in intermediate goods and transportation. Today, cost-push inflation is a global phenomenon which is leading to a rally of inflation prices. This chain of events has highlighted how short the supply chain truly is and how its impact is global in nature. This cost-push inflation is now being amplified by the war in Ukraine. The conflict has brought to a halt the world’s largest wheat producers and exporters of natural gas. The sanctions imposed by the Western world on Russia have ushered in an era of economic weaponing and warfare which will paralyse the Russian economy, but its backlash will impact us all. The rallying price of commodities especially oil, gas and wheat will impact the global economy and vulnerable states even more. Finally, climate change is not only a common challenge humanity faces but a threat for vulnerable states that are the victims of a globalized world in this regard. Low laying island states, many of which are members of CHOGM, are suffering the impact of climate change when they are in fact the least contributors to the problem. Various global initiatives including the COP meetings have tried to constrain emissions however they have failed in their ambitions. Climate change today remains a global threat and unless there is a concerted effort to quicken the transition to renewables or cleaner sources of energy, the threat of climate change will only intensify. Commonality of events and their impact is a real global issue. Many a times it is the commonality of adverse events and affects that impacts us all and obviously vulnerable countries are the ones that suffer the most from these direct and indirect effects. It is therefore pertinent that Rwanda will be placing this on the agenda for CHOGM. There is no doubt that CHOGM comes at a very delicate time for the global economy and as well for the general world order. With a war happening in Europe which can derail global peace and the global world order, a still fragile global economy with the risks of a global inflation crunch and economic war, coupled with a pandemic that remains present and can mutate; the threats to the global economy remain real and largely on the downside. The discussion at CHOGM needs to be centred around this commonality not only from an adverse impact point of view, but more importantly, on the possibilities and opportunities that exist in this global commonality. Evidently there is need for more impactful multilateralism. There needs to be an improved sense of solidarity between countries especially when developmental issues are concerned. Global mechanisms that finance climate change as well as the global refinancing debt and a movement for debt swaps and debt cancellation needs to be discussed considering the common threats described earlier. One hopes that CHOGM rises to this unique occasion and The Commonwealth can reaffirm itself as a voice of reason and a beacon of hope especially for the low income and developing countries. Rwanda has a unique opportunity to anchor itself not only as the leading and most aspirational voice in Africa, based on its successful transformation, but it can today establish itself as a global voice by affirming its policy and visionary leadership of CHOGM later this year. JP Fabri is a co-founding partner of Seed, an international research-driven advisory firm with offices in the Middle East and Europe. www.seedconsultancy.com | jp@seedconsultancy.com
