This is the final article in a series that looks at the main drivers of change that we are expected to observe in the labour market over the coming years. Over the course of the past weeks, we have touched upon several elements. Till now this series has explored digitalisation & automation, the global war for talent, the need for enhanced quality of jobs, the green economy, and the platform economy as key drivers. This week we look at the future of work in general. Covid-19 and the resulting social measures have brought a sense of urgency to this debate and one can say that it catapulted this issue even more into the present than into the future. The ILO defines remote working as the use of ICT, such as smartphones, tablets, laptops and desktop computers, for work that is performed outside the employer’s premises. Before March 2020 and the onset of Covid-19, remote working was already a feature of working life, particularly in advanced economies, and its use was expected to grow as the costs of ICT and broadband communications decreased; however, it was limited mainly to employer-worker agreements in certain occupations and sectors. One major impact of the pandemic in 2020, was the overnight shift to remote working in most countries across the globe. This was a sudden development rather than a transition, arising out of the health considerations of the pandemic which required drastic social distancing. Actual lockdowns across several countries made the closing of offices mandatory, leaving no alternative other than remote working. As these restrictions eased with the roll-out of vaccination programmes, particularly in advanced economies, it became clear that the world of work was not simply going to revert to its pre-pandemic form. The latest research indicates that there is a strong demand for a hybrid model. Latest research also indicates that this shift towards more flexible working arrangements could be a major disruption, impacting productivity and efficiency levels, and fundamentally changing the global talent landscape. Research issued by the European Commission indicates that pre-pandemic levels of remote work among employees (defined in this context as workers who ‘usually’ worked from home) stood at only 5.4 per cent in the EU27 and that this rate had remained constant since 2009. This figure rose to nearly 40.0 per cent of workers across the EU during 2020. Whereas the prevalence of remote work varied widely across sectors and occupations, the Commission determined this to be highest in knowledge-and-ICT-intensive services, led by the ICT sector and business services. This research also found that remote working was mostly applicable to high-skilled professionals before the pandemic, however due to the enforced conditions imposed by the pandemic, this circle widened to other workers in these sectors who despite working intensively with ICT had so far only limited experience of remote work. For example, this included junior professionals, technicians and clerical grades. Disparities in access to remote work adds to existing income inequality: reflecting the higher prevalence of remote work among high-skilled workers and the option to work remotely is considerably more widespread among well-paid employees. As pandemic restrictions ease, this divide is set to increase further, heightening disparity in wage and working conditions between different occupations. Further research carried out by the Commission in November 2020, found that the main issues relating to remote work were impacts on work-life balance and job quality, mainly due to the ‘all pervasive’ nature of remote work where normal working times were blurred and the ‘digital intensity’ of work increased drastically. Results of a survey issued by Eurofound, based on nearly 90,000 ‘online’ surveys conducted in July 2020, show that almost half (48.0 per cent) of respondents were in remote work at least part of the time last year. Of these, more than a third (34.0 per cent) were working exclusively from home. The figures contrast with those seen before the pandemic, in 2018, when “less than one in twenty workers” reported working remotely regularly and “less than one in ten occasionally.” Eurofound’s data also shows that of the total respondents who were working at home, most (74.0 per cent) had higher qualifications. One of the issues being discussed about remote working is the lack of boundaries between work and non-work life. The ‘Microsoft 2020 Work Trend Index’ surveyed over 30,000 people in 31 countries and analysed trillions of productivity and labour signals across Microsoft365 and LinkedIn. The survey reflects data collected between February 2020 and February 2021. Looking at trends beyond the pandemic, its overall key finding is that employees want a hybrid approach – 73.0 per cent of workers surveyed want the flexible remote working option to stay, while 67.0 per cent want more in-person time with their teams. It also seems that most employers surveyed accept this new reality and are gearing up to make the required design changes to accommodate a hybrid work environment. All fora within the EU acknowledge that remote working is going to remain a feature post-pandemic. Eurofound notes that although the number of remote workers fell by March 2021 as many workers returned to the office, the vast majority express a preference to work from home “several times a week in the long term.” Policy recommendations to cater for this are already underway in Europe especially from a ‘right to disconnect’ perspective. The current situation sees varying approaches by Member States in terms of regulating remote work – Spain has enacted comprehensive legislation; Austria has amended existing employment legislation to define ‘remote working’ while Ireland has established a code of practice for employers and employees. In other Member States the debate is ongoing. Apart from the ‘right to disconnect’ other issues centre around: • Privacy – this applies to how remote management controls are applied without infringing employees’ right to privacy (e.g., monitoring of website access). • Requiring employers to provide IT equipment. • Protecting against discrimination and health risk. Finally, it should be noted that at this point, the Commission is stressing the value of remote/hybrid working in a green, sustainable development context; wider adoption of this model can reduce carbon emissions as well as other tangible benefits. Technological change has accelerated over the past few years and coupled with the experience during Covid has made working from home a reality in many businesses and industries. In what is being described as a new normal, the hybrid model is gaining traction whereby workers are working from home a few days a week. This is not possible for all jobs, especially the low-skilled ones. Moving forward, the importance of upskilling in the face of further automation becomes important together with policy guidance on homeworking. I do hope that you have enjoyed this mini-series on the future of employment and that it triggered some questions on how these drivers will affect your organisations and Rwanda. The coming months remain highly uncertain, and this further reaffirms the importance of investing in strong fundamentals both at company but also at national level. I wish all readers of The New Times a happy new year. JP Fabri is a co-founding partner of Seed, an international research driven advisory firm with offices in Europe and the Middle East. www.seedconsultancy.com | jp@seedconsultancy.com
