The East African region can get quite frosty, so cold sometimes it is freezing. You would have thought that being so close to the equator would make for much greater warmth. In a sense that is actually true. The people of East Africa are warm. It sounds odd for an East African to talk about frost and freezing in this region. No, it’s not the climate, although the weather can get really chilly in some places. It is the relations that get frosty; more correctly, those between the leaders. The politics are another matter. They can get so hot and flare up into real conflagration and cause massive destruction. Mercifully, the fire and heat remain largely internal although in some instances sparks fly into the neighbours’ territory. But sometimes the frost and fire are so close that the danger of a quick jump from freezing to heat and fire is always present. Occasionally, spells of sunshine in the politics appear and help thaw the frozen relations and some warmth returns. Often slowly, almost tentatively. And then East Africans are at their best. In nearly sixty years of independence, such periods have, however, been rare and brief. Tension, conflict, and pulling in different directions have instead been more prevalent. Now there are some signs of the beginning of one of those rare sunny periods. It may still be only sunrise but there is hope for clear skies long enough for the sun to shine and the frost to thaw. Rwanda is about to experience some of these sunny moments. That is the assurance President Paul Kagame gave Rwandans on May 1. He told a meeting of the National Executive Committee of the Rwanda Patriotic Front that relations with most of the country’s neighbours were generally good. Only with two had there been issues, and with one of them, these were being sorted out. Relations with Burundi are on the mend. Most times they have been problematic. But in the last six years, they have been cold. They reached their coldest point when Burundi gave support to genocidaires and terrorists to attack and destabilise Rwanda. The brothers to the south must have realised that they were paying a heavy price for nil profit and decided to change course. Or they must have concluded that there was more to gain from more cooperation and getting along with neighbours. Whatever the cause for the change of heart, it is a step into the sunshine and the beginning of better relations. That leaves Uganda the only actively hostile neighbour, a situation for which President Kagame said he could not find an explanation. For duration of frost between countries in the region, none beats that between Kenya and Tanzania. They have been so for nearly six decades. Even here, some warmth is beginning to appear. It seems to have started with Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s recent state visit to Kenya. In the early days, the differences were largely ideological and so far apart that they seemed unbridgeable. Indeed, they led to the collapse in 1977 of the first attempt at East African regional integration. And while it is true that Presidents Jomo Kenyatta and Julius Nyerere may have had mutual respect for each other, they also had contempt for the political and economic direction each had taken. In more recent times, Tanzania appeared to go slow on the reborn East African Community, perhaps wary of the intentions of some of the partner states. With Kenya, they were afraid of being swamped by Kenyan goods. They were also concerned about aggressive business people and professionals descending on their country in hordes to take over their businesses and jobs. From Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya, they were worried about their land being grabbed by other hordes of farmers and cattle keepers. Tanzanian leaders started looking more inward and erected measures to prevent the supposed takeover of their country. They also looked a lot more to the south to their partners in SADC. President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s visit to Kenya seems to have been designed to alter this perception. She made all the right remarks, and in the most humorous way, about their being brothers and sisters and so no barriers should ever be allowed between them, about increased trade and investment, and so on. She appears to have made a favourable impression. As in the case of Burundi and Rwanda, it seems that recognition of the problem and the futility of holding on to some positions have led to steps to better relations. In two other areas with perennial issues tensions also appear to be easing. Relations between Kenya and Somalia have never been easy. In recent days a maritime boundary dispute has added to the tension and even led to a break in diplomatic ties. The news now is that these are being restored although the boundary issue has not been settled. Still, it is a good sign. In South Sudan, fingers crossed, the peace agreement may hold and the never-ending fighting cease. All these may be only small and early signs, but they point to a lifting of some of the dark clouds, letting in the sun, and bringing some warmth. East Africa’s leaders must now learn to manage the diplomatic sunshine and make it last longer.
