A model by the World Health Organisation (WHO) Africa office, published on Friday, May 15, predicts that nearly a quarter of a billion people in 47 African countries will catch the new coronavirus over the next year. It also predicts a lower rate of exposure and viral spread than in other parts of the world, and up to 190,000 deaths unless urgent action is taken to control the infection. The model by the WHO regional office for Africa indicates that the result will be fewer severe cases and deaths than in the US and Europe. The new research is published in the BMJ Global Health, an open-access, online journal dedicated to publishing high-quality peer-reviewed content relevant to global health matters. According to the authors, Africas much younger age profile compared to other countries is behind the lower transmission rates. It is noted that lower rates of obesity on the continent, compared to elsewhere, also help to slow its progress. “The biggest factor that plays out in our numbers is age,” data analyst Humphrey Karamagi is quoted saying. “We also have very few people who are obese, although the numbers are rising. But not at the levels in the US.” It is noted that the success of containment measures including contact tracing, isolation, handwashing and physical distancing, is critical, as health systems are not designed to mitigate against the implications of widespread community transmission. Countries of the WHO African Region need to expand capacity of, particularly, their primary hospitals to mitigate implications of widespread community spread of SARS-CoV-2, and that, as noted, includes basic emergency care needs. Mid last month, a report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa predicted a much higher infection and death rate on the continent, of 1.2 billion infections and 3.3 million deaths. As noted, however, the two models are not comparable, because the new one uses data from the WHO African Region, a smaller grouping of the continent that does not include Djibouti, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan or Tunisia. Speculation that African countries may be reporting fewer cases because they are not detecting them is debunked. The most affected African country, South Africa, for example, is reported to have good detection capabilities, but low numbers. “There might be an effect of reporting but we do not think that fully explains the rates, when we are seeing the pattern we are seeing. There is something around social-cultural or developmental or environmental structure that is slowing the transmission rates,” Karamagi said. 42% increase in past week Meanwhile, the WHO Africa region office, also reports that there has been a 42% increase in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Africa in the past week. The West African region is most affected, accounting for 43% of cases. South Africa, Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, Guinea, Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, and DR Congo are most affected by COVID-19 in the WHO African Region in terms of cumulative case numbers. Together, they account for 87% of reported cases in the Region. More than half the countries in the African Region have recorded widespread community transmission of the virus. The virus has largely affected urban populations, with most rural communities relatively unaffected or only reporting sporadic cases. The virus is continuing its spread across the world, with more than four million confirmed cases in 188 countries. No life has been lost due to the virus in Rwanda. In Africa, there are over 75,000 infections that have been recorded with 2,500 deaths so far. The global outbreak of the virus first emerged in China in December last year.
