It is probably obvious that the point of an opinion column in a newspaper is sometimes to raise a few hackles if only to deepen debate and thrash out the issues. So it seemed last December with an articulate Financial Times (FT) opinion by columnist Ruchir Sharma headlined, “The biggest problem for global growth is Africa”. The reaction it elicited from offended Africans was as strident as it was expected. I only recall it now after the recent news about how the continent's GDP growth is outpacing the global average, somewhat contradicting the FT header. ALSO READ: A quick look at Africa 2024 through GDP’s Before getting to how Africa’s GDP is faring, let’s first look at the angry dissent. It was against comparing Africa with South Korea and Taiwan and how the two rich Asian countries have capitalised on their population to grow theirs and the global economy. Recall that the two Asian countries were economically similar to some African countries in the 1960s. Sharma, therefore, argues that had Africa capitalised on its people, its share of the world economy would be at least three times larger than it is today. He is probably right. But “should we really be comparing [a continent of] 54 countries to South Korea [and] Taiwan which even within East Asian economies are outliers in many respects,” wondered Zainab Usman in an angry thread on X (formerly Twitter). Usman is the Founding Director of the Washington-based Africa Programme of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her rebuttal, which included a choice word or two, typified the dismayed, if annoyed reaction on social media and elsewhere. Some readers of the Financial Times at a club I frequent were as cross. But, as noted above, sometimes the point of an opinion piece is to move the debate forward. And so it was that the FT reached out to Usman and published her rebuttal. African countries, she argues, are facing challenges and economic growth aspirations similar to South Korea and Taiwan’s neighbours – Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Laos, the Philippines and Vietnam. The two Asian tigers are the exception. “Thus,” she writes, “the challenge of accelerating productivity growth is not a uniquely African problem. According to an IMF working paper, over the 1960-2014 period, only 16 out of 182 countries reached high-income status. Take out the Asian tigers and the oil-rich Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE and the number of countries that sustained high levels of per capita income growth rates drops to less than 10 countries around the world.” Usman makes an emphatic point that many, including in the continent, may not have been aware. The point is also that Africa is not perfect, but much about it is debatable. As for most countries in Africa attaining high levels of per capita income comparable to, for example, South Korea at per capita income of over $34,000, it may take a while. Indications, however, are that Africa’s GDP growth is outpacing the global average. The growth has been increasing and is expected to average 3.8 per cent and 4.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, respectively. This is higher than projected global averages of 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent, according to the African Development Bank. The continent is set to remain the second-fastest-growing region after Asia. Of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2024, 11 will be from Africa, including Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda. East Africa is expected to lead the continent’s growth momentum. ALSO READ: Fastest growing economies in 2024? It's all about Africa To echo Usman when she observes that the two Asian tigers benefited from United States and Japanese investment to reach where they are today, so does the continent. It, too, will need substantial investments in addition to capitalising on its burgeoning and youthful population and prudently exploiting its abundant natural resources if it is to play a bigger role in the global economy. This calls for good governance nationally and sustained economic integration regionally under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which has just launched its operational phase. Africa will also need to cultivate a more assertive voice, especially in global institutions such as the World Trade Organisation. The WTO is dominated by the superpowers, who always have their economic way. ALSO READ: A unified and assertive Africa Union will benefit everyone – Kagame The AfCFTA could be the tool for Africa to project its voice and assert its might as resource-rich and the promise of a market of 1.4 billion people. It will, however, take all the 54 countries on the continent to reap from the AfCFTA. Though almost all have signed on, over half of them are yet to ratify the continental agreement.
