Hotter climate predicted as Meteorological Day is marked

2015 was the hottest year of the last five years, and it might get even hotter over the coming decades as more and more heat trapping greenhouse gases emitted by human activity accumulate in the atmosphere, according to Rwanda Meteorology Agency. This was announced as Rwanda, yesterday, joined the rest of the world to mark the World Meteorological Day under the theme: “Hotter, Drier, Wetter. Face the Future.” “The world just had its hottest year 2015, hottest five year period and hottest decade, and the climate will continue to change,” a statement from the national meteo agency said. ”The fact is that, on record, 15 of the 16 hottest years have occurred this century. 2011-2015 was the hottest five-year period on record.” The agency says that climate change has increased the risk of excess heat, by significant margin as indicated by scientific assessments. Rwanda has been a part of World Meteorological Organisation—a United Nations specialised agency—for the last 53 years. John Ntaganda Semafara, the director general of Meteo Rwanda, said the global average surface temperature in 2015 surpassed all previous records, at about 0.73°C, above the 1961-1990 average of 14.0°C. “For the first time, temperatures reached the milestone of 1°C above the pre-industrial 1880-1899 period. This means we are already half-way towards the 2° C limit, above which life on the planet will become increasingly precarious,” said Ntaganda, who doubles as Rwanda’s Permanent Representative to the World Meteorological Organisation. Didace Musoni, division manager of data observations, quality control and processing division at Rwanda Meteo, said from the meteorological data records, Rwanda experienced an increase of about 1°C, which is almost in agreement with the World Global Concern. “Rainfall varies naturally from year to year and from decade to decade, influenced by a global circulation phenomenon often influenced by the El Niño and other climate drivers,” Musoni said. He added that, in addition to natural climate variability, climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions would have an increasing impact on the water cycle. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase during the 21st century. “Wet areas will become wetter, and dry areas drier. The extent and speed of these changes will depend on whether we achieve the target of keeping temperature increases to less than 2°Celsius above the preindustrial era,” Drought in East Africa between 1998 and 1999 and into early 2000 resulted in widespread loss of life and food shortages. Most of the Southern and Eastern parts of Rwanda were also impacted heavily by this drought. The arrival of El Niño in 2015 brought significant rains in the Equatorial East Africa and, in particular to Rwanda, central and western parts of the country realised above normal rainfall, while some pockets of eastern parts experienced drier conditions than was predicted, according to the meteo agency. Rwanda Meteorological Agency says that it was able to generate early warnings with regard to the current El Nino and, on timely, basis was able to issue and disseminate warnings about likely extreme weather events of high impacts. “We thank the government which responded promptly to the information given by Meteo Rwanda by martialing both human and material resources to contain the impacts of likely disasters through inter-ministerial response committees that were strengthened,” Ntaganda said. He added that governments worldwide are now fully convinced of the scientific evidence of climate change and the need to take urgent action. Rwanda Meteo says that more research and investment is needed for advancing low-carbon technologies, particularly in the energy sector and environmental management. “As of now many policies, technologies and actions are available, and their deployment needs to be scaled up locally as well as internationally, to contribute towards combating climate change impacts,” Ntaganda added. editorial@newtimes.co.rw

News

Hotter climate predicted as Meteorological Day is marked