The South Sudan government’s recent decision to appoint opposition politicians to the cabinet following the August 2015 peace deal can only be lauded. It is best indication yet that the peace deal – the eighth, following a series of broken peace agreements – will flower this time around. A misunderstanding between President Salva Kiir and the now former rebel leader Riek Machar sparked clashes that engulfed the country in a conflict involving some 20 armed groups, leaving tens of thousands dead with over a million people displaced in a country of 12 million. But, abiding by the letter of the Compromise Peace Agreement, has set the ground for national reconciliation. Provisions under the Agreement proposed a Transitional Government of National Unity that is set to govern for 30 months. And now that the Transitional Government has been formed, it is expected that a new Constitution of South Sudan will be put in place, doing away with the 2011 Transitional Constitution. After so many failures to reach what we hope will be a sustainable solution, it is a triumph of sorts. Many in the region are gratified with the new development. Now the real work begins now: to nurture the peace in the delicate process of bearing forth a new Constitution. And, if it is a triumph, especially with South Sudan now firmly a member of the Northern Corridor Integration Projects (NCIP) initiative, it makes the country’s triumph our triumph. The NCIP also includes Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya in an initiative that was initially aimed at galvanizing and accelerating East African Community projects. Ethiopia is the newest member of NCIP after it was formally welcomed on board in Kigali last December. Tanzania is in the wings wanting in. So is Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo. With the broadened inclusiveness, it is only a short step away for all these countries becoming members of the EAC, which stands out as the most accomplished of regional economic communities (RECs) on the continent. But while the prospect of the larger Eastern Africa becoming the EAC remains in the future, the moment belongs to South Sudan. While we may not do much for price of the three-year strife in terms of the human cost, operationalising the peace deal with the Transitional Government of National Unity will avert a more encompassing cost that had the potential to suck in the entire region. An analysis by the London-based consultancy firm, Frontier Economics, as noted in this column sometime last year, suggested that the South Sudan conflict could have cost Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania a combined $53 billion if it had lasted another five years as the neighbouring countries dealt with refugees, security needs and other spillover effects. More broadly, the peace deal has saved the international community close to US$30 billion. It has also saved what would have been a highly debilitating cost at the national level. The analysis, titled, South Sudan: The Cost of War (An estimation of the economic and financial costs of ongoing conflict), had forecast the country would forego up to $28 billion in economic growth if the war were to continue. The costs for South Sudan in terms of lost growth opportunities over a 20 year period could be between US$122 billion and US$158 billion. This is more than 12 times South Sudan’s current GDP. With such grim projections, therefore, there is much to be happy about, that the first step of having the Transitional Government has been taken. Now it is to ensure that the rest of the process goes on according to plan, despite the restive murmurs among a section of the rebel groups opposed to the creation of more regional states. As things stand, President Kiir has been apportioned a 53 per cent stake in the Transitional Government, Machar 33 per cent, while former detainees and other political parties will take seven per cent each, according to the Compromise Peace Agreement underwritten by regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad). Now let the process move forward, shepherded by all; nationally, regionally and internationally.
