Recently, West African countries have started to come to the fore with frequent coups. This wind, which started with Mali and Guinea in 2021, continued with Niger and Gabon in 2023. Especially the coup in Niger had a wider impact in the world than in other countries. Although these coups seem like political moves on paper, I think they contain major commercial moves on their invisible face. Of course, first of all, we need to take a look at the historical past of the countries in West Africa with France. In the 1960s, these countries, especially the Central West African countries called 'Sahel' (Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania, etc.), are falling far behind their Western neighbors Senegal and Ivory Coast in industrial and economic terms. They also have significant differences in terms of development with Southern and East African countries. With the end of the Cold War period, the world's eyes turned to the Middle East geography towards the 2000s. First Afghanistan, then Iraq, finally Syria, and then with the Arab Spring, there were significant regime changes in many Muslim countries. In the final analysis, while some countries seem to have achieved stability with these changes, some countries are still faced with political and economic crises. When we move away from these countries and go down the route, we see that the Central West African countries have been in a new political and economic search in recent years. The last coup we witnessed took place in Gabon, one of the developed countries of the Central African geography. On August 30, 2023, the military took over, putting an end to the 56-year-old Bongo family dynasty. An interim government has already been established in Gabon, which changed the administration in the country under more diplomatic conditions compared to other coups, and the commercial and industrial functioning in the country continues smoothly from where it left off. In the table below you can see the coups in the world since 1950. The African continent continues to lead in this regard : In my personal opinion, after every coup and every regime change, there are significant swaps in commercial conjunctures. West Africa has had close relations with France for over 100 years. If we need to elaborate this group of relations a little more, we can include not only commercial and cultural influences, but also military, energy resources, educational, infrastructure and superstructure services. However, it seems that the footprints of the current trend are that the West African countries have shifted their compass from the West, that is, Europe, to the East, that is, China. Personally, as a businessman who trades with the African continent, I can see that many Chinese investments have a say in the sub-Saharan region recently. Especially in deteriorating economies, it is not difficult to see that people are now turning to more affordable products. Commercial minds are trying to get 2 pieces, not 1 piece, for $1. This has elevated China to an important ally for Africa. Considering the deteriorating economic situation and the relations with Europe, which are coming to an end, we can think that China will have a significantly greater foot step in Africa in the near future. Let's support this not only with expressions but also with mathematical data. When we look at China's export figures to the African continent, we can see that the relevant dominance is directly reflected in the figures. Trade between China and African nations recorded double-digit increase in 2022. Again trade between China and Africa come to a record $282 billion in 2022, up 11% from 2021, according to data released by the General Administration of Chinese Customs. China's sends out to African nations expanded by 11.2% over the past year to $164.49 billion. Amid the same period, Chinese imports from Africa totaled $117.51 billion. Another important reason for this is that China has renewed customs agreements with many African countries and is seeking mutual tax exemptions or reductions with many countries. This directly affects China's trading with these countries very positively. Last year, Beijing lifted tariffs on the some African countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Malawi, Uganda, Sao Tome and Principe, Tanzania and Zambia. With these customs tariff updates, African countries' perspectives and closeness to China automatically increases. While China was an important supplier country only for a few African countries (Sudan, Gambia, Benin, Djibouti) in the early 2000s, today it has come to dominate almost the entire continent. In short, China is taking firm steps towards becoming the big brother country in African lands, where France is experiencing serious blood loss. In addition to being just an ordinary trading partner, China has also become one of the most important investors on the African continent. Today, more than 50% of infrastructure projects in Africa are undertaken by Chinese companies. The most direct impact of this is the employment opportunities it creates for local people. In many Chinese companies operating in Africa, more than 80% of staff are local employees. Chinese companies have given back to local communities by infrastructural construction business. At the same time, they have increased technology transfer, local procurement and personnel training in Africa, and helped modernize the continent's agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors, improving operations. Production and processing and create greater added value, thereby contributing significantly to stability. We can clearly read that the subtext of the African agenda, shaken by coups, is actually a rebellion against the current system. Many countries that have been under French hegemony for many years now want to change their partners. In this process of change, the partnership arrow now points to China. Many Africans with whom I work as business partners appreciate and admire China's innovations and work in the sub-Saharan region. Rather than being a commercial partner for Africa, they see China as a brother country that will take them forward in many areas.
