In a country where almost half of the population are Catholics, it is widely believed by Rwandans that it has to rain every August 15, when Assumption Day is celebrated.

Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims from across the globe travel to Rwanda to mark the day in Kibeho in the Southern Province where Mary, the mother of Jesus is believed to have appeared in 1981.

Although one cannot say the belief in the rain being a blessing is a myth, science shows that it must not rain every August 15, contrary to what is widely believed.

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The rain showers are believed to come from heaven as a gift from the Virgin Mary, hence calling them ‘Imvura ya Bikira Mariya’ which translates to ‘the Virgin Mary’s rain’ or ‘Imvura y’umugisha’ which translates to ‘the rain of blessing’.

Although it is a common belief, some people argue that it always rained in August even before Christianity reached Rwanda, challenging the correlation between Assumption Day and rain in the last month of the dry season.

Research meteorologists Vedaste Iyakaremye and Floribert Vuguziga in their 2021 research on the Assumption Day rains report that it doesn’t always rain on August 15, and that when it does, it doesn’t rain in all parts of the country.

This was an analysis from the comparison of rainfall on Assumption Day in 40 years- from the time the Virgin Mary is said to have appeared in 1981, to 2020, in the whole country.

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They reported that of all the 40 years, it didn’t rain in 15 of them in any part of the country, which is almost half of their sample period. Also, in Kigali, where this rain was more frequent, it only rained 13 times, while in Karongi, it only rained five times in 40 years.

The meteorologists suggest that August rains come from DRC forests, but wherever this rain comes from, it is still considered a blessing by believers and non-believers. It is a view that can be attributed to the Rwandan cultural attitude towards rain.

Andre Ntagwabira, a Rwandan historian told The New Times in an interview that since ages ago until now, Rwandans associate rain with crop productivity, a belief that is still relevant given that more than 70 percent of the Rwandan population engages in agriculture.

"When they say the weather was good for a specific period, they mean that they got good harvests. When they say the weather was bad, it means they didn’t get enough harvest and that it either rained later than usual or that it rained too much and there were floods. These expressions show that rain is vital for crop production, hence a blessing,” Ntagwabira said.

He added that water, let alone rain, was regarded as a blessing. "Depending on the time, water can be incanted (gutongerwa) to bring great blessings or the worst troubles.”